Tuesday, May 3, 2011

82K before I went restocking silly, ~70K, and ITS ALWAYS PROFITABLE...

So, I was up 82K on the week last night as I neared a finish a long round of inventory management, crafting,stocking... Not one to really watch the numbers too closely (more on that in a second)  I did go nuts as some of my stocks needed rebuilt and prices were good for doing that...  Abyssal shater. crunched about 100 of them last night, and flipped the dusts since the prices skyrocketed...  will see if any sell befor prices drop back down, eitherway, I got the ACs below my threshold.  I dropped a ton into getting silly with a side project too.  I needed a few Volatile Airs and prices were down about 10% from a pretty steady norm.  they usually sit at 17-18 and dont really move much.  they were down to 15 so I snatched a ton of singles to flip in stacks of 10...  This is where auctionater and postal are amazing...  you can make some great small profits in these markets... couple things to remember though... timing is huge, convenience for others is too.. buy singles and sell stacks... even stacks or 5 or 10 work great, but 50+ do well too.  My problem with this is exit strategys...   That and i went quite nuts on the markets, trying to reset several scolls... I was buying everything below, at and even above current mats costs by a little to get the prices reset.  There were a few scrolls selling at 80 gold below cost, I rest prices to sell at 80G profit.  there are a couple I wish a I had looked up in MySales or Bean counter to see what my sales historty is, I may now be sitting on a ton of scrolls that will just never sell, or take forever... Ehh, hind sight is always 20/20..  Final number for the week was around 70Kish, and a ton of scrolls that were still in the "hour" of wait time.  In the customs warehouse I guess, being taxed for their 5%....

So... Why do I just not worry about the numbers... Well, I do, I Pay it forward and continuously monitor.

First thing. You have to know the market well enough to set a purchase threshold that you can stock up at and maintain your stockpiles.  that will take 1 or more weeks to really know, but your historical scans of the AH should give a lot of insight... (you do scans, right!?)  I use auctionator mainly as my Auction House tool. So this may need modified and you have to know how and where the numbers come from.  Next I buy out everything to my threshold, dust, essence, shards mainly, but volatiles and others play in too...  Now is time to test markets...  Use of lil sparkys workshop....  open crafing menu and look for profitable sales... so (lil sparkys is great here, no set up and no fuss)  Now, I begin to set up ZA at the same time, I create a group for sales, and set the threshold based on what the LSW price is plus 5% for the AH cut.  Now is time for the fallback.  This one is tough.. and YMMV, but you have to have a sense of rarity, and volume, and necessity...  If you go too high, you will lose a lot of sales for that reason, go to low and you will make little unless you have a high volume.  and the necessity of the item...  Is it a luxury item?  or something that is needed....  Nich market considerations also play in, and no one can tell you what your markets will do.  Or what level of success you WILL have...  Only thing you get from others is indicators...

Anyway... once ZA is set, its based on my threshold...  I always buy at and below my threshold....  by buying below, there is profits right there...  there is profits the ZA threshold too...   so really, no matter what I will make gold on every sale... or just wait on the market...  with the 1S deposit of enchanting scrolls... I dont ever even figure that in, but if you are working other markets you need to.

The problem is like now, after the masive shift in mats on the patch day...  I have had to adjust a LOT of numbers in ZA...  In the case of Maelstrom crystals,  I had to lower both my threshold and my fallback...
They were both too high... So much so that 2 things were happening...  One... I was no longer undercutting...  Like my fallback was 3500G, and the mats cost has fallen below 2000...  Second I was posting so high as for the price to be so unatractive that buys would get a crafter and wait... I would...  most of the players that are going for these enchants know the cost and mats roughly,  and when the cost is about 3-5K for the mats and the scroll is listed at 8K... yeah, I will buy the mats and bark for a crafter in trade or look for a barking crafter. 

The second big group of adjustments I have been making is in the Celestial essence recipies.  CEs have shifted in price up, about 10G.  Thats pretty huge on some chanting formulas....  Now this is where LSW works again...

LSW as I am about to craft to restock... tells me if it is still profitable...  and by how much... now I can do something... go actually look at the AH, and buy out the 2 scrolls that ar 50% low... flippin profit there... or not craft and let the market come back..  and double check in ZA and LSW numbers for problems, inconsistencies or adjustments to be made.

Okay, I hate reading long posts.... and this one is too long already... dun...

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