PREDICTIONS AND IMPACT

So, was doing a little diligent looking at the PTR data mined notes, and saw one thing in the notes that will have some effect, and another that is just other new from an add on the page...

First Maelstrom shatter... This will not have major impact on values of either, my experience is that heavenly shards and MCs will both are fairly close in price... It may change over the crafting to DE patterns as more havenly shards are made out of MCs instead of DEd PVP gears... interesting...

When will 4.3 drop... well.. STAR WARS THE OLD REPUBLIC has a realease date of 20 Dec... I expect the release of 4.3 to coincide with that... I think SWTOR will be a new competition for subscribers to WoW... Will be fun to watch... will it be another Rift story, or will it develope its own community and lasting growth like WOW?  Rift I think will diminish and possibly grow slowly...  Just guessing...

But as you stock up look at these notes on data mined material... the big things to look at will be what is on the first bosses in the new raids.. the new 5 mans, and the new valor gear....  and lastly the new crafted gear seems to require raid zone drops, and will be pants and bracers...  Look for gem sockets, and what enchants you can profit on

More still coming on how the epic gems will work, lots of guessing.. atm, I am not one to do more than continue to stock up... Even if I lose gold, I dont care, I have enough that I can lose a lot and still have more than a lot of players will ever see...  all the mats are not on credit, so even if they lose value they will still have value... .. there is ZERO risk for my GAME, I am talking about my time investment for fun risk... there is investment risk for the pixels that represent my virtual gold count... but, I still play for fun and prospecting the market amuses me.. still buying tankards of terror under 500... and stocking up on JC mats through the shuffle... and chant mats, LOTS and LOTS of chant mats... I see a lot of chant materials at below norm prices as I guess there is a lot of JCs that are shuffling the pyrite throgh the shuffle, instead of unloading outright..  these mats are alomst certain to see another huge jump in value as 4.3 hits... the new gear, then new enchants, lots of alts, lots of raiding new PVP gears/season/craftables... etc etc etc...

Keep checkin MMO and planing ahead.. starting now will have massive profit potential.. and IMO, there is little risk... Server dependant, YMMV... MY guess you will be able to sell 5 times or more the normal volume you have seen in recent weeks when 4.3 hits... are you stocked and ready for 2-3 weeks of that volume?  There will likely be new PVP gear to be stocked up for, otherwise gems, belt buckles, enchants, leg armor/threads will sell in massive volumes...   that is almost a certain fact...

Oh... the ideas.. where they come from...

So, I am trying to consolidate my gold much more to one faction, and make some more gold in the process...

I have read about it and so went to find out what "auctioneer" and "arbitage" can do and how it works... still playing with it and nothing to report, started last night, but what I did find was a short term investment.
I do have 2 accounts... so, it pretty easy, but it is somewhat time consuming... like everything in this game though..  The idea is, auctioneer finds the "buy cheap" stuff on alliance, and then you move it across the neutral AH and "sell high" on horde side or vice versa...

Playing with it and such, Click a button and it says buy brewfest tankards (tankards of terror)... and thats when it hit me... the great idea... the tankards are a ilvl 365, slow 2.6 spd, one handed mace with agility as the primary stat, and they are not unique.  Gotta double check, but I am almost certain they are BIS pre FL raid drops for shammys main and off hand and combat rogue main hand... the supply is crazy now with the rush of players in the brewfest event, as the even wears on, it will get slower, supply will slow down as people get mounts and achieves and quit running it, then ITS OVER.. the supply of these great weapons is GONE!!!!  sounds to me like a great short term investment..... buy about 50 or so of these things.. YMMV, server based... I have a large population raiding server... currently buying under 500? or there abouts.. and waiting a week...  MUAHH aahhhh HHHHAaaa haaaaa haa...

thanks for stopping in, please share a comment...  would love to get some feedback on what peeps think of the blog, an article, a 'thank you', a 'your stupid', a personal story.. I do seem to have more and more visitors... just not many comments... the only comments not supported, would be those that are hacks, bots or gold selling oriented... because its too easy to take peoples gold...

BUY LOTS OF TANKARDS and hold them for about 2 weeks...  They are the only 365 agi weapons for a combat rogue or enhancement shammy...  drops in the raid zones are terrible for shammans and combat rogue weapons.. just dont see a lot of them, so this is likely the only readily available weapon for them.  The pair of fist weapons in the troll dungeons, whit the set bonus... very nice... but main hand dps and slow swing speeds are better than in most cases... gotta do some more looking, but you can to...  I bought 26 of them soo far, buying under 500 gold atm, in hopes that in a couple weeks, the supply WILL be gone, and thats where I come in.. I AM THE SUPPLY.. for all the alts, and the new players, and the gotta have it now guys that do not want to wait for 4.3  I figure I will have about 2 months to sell whatever I stock up...  and so far 13K... to some thats a lot, for me... IT IS PIXELS.. and it amuses me...

Total tangent and side note on things that amuse me... I lead raids... durring raids, I maintain the expectation that if a break is not called, and you are in the zone you are ready... end of discussion... no ready checks, just a "lets go" and on boss fights after buffs and stuff a "3 - 2 - 1... FUN!!!"  but my tendancy to use ready checks even to make sure everyone is back.. dont do it, it a voting tool... not a read check in my raids... NOW we get the part I find amusing... break is over or nearly over, pick a zone geographic fixture or raid marker or something, the left side of the road, by the rocks, where NO ONE is currently at... then go there and on vent say, " if you are back from break stack up over here by the rocks"  6 people stack up with you as you move over.. now you have the lemmings/sheep thing... as one more comes back... they have learned, and know to 'join the group.'  No ready checks, minimal vent blather, when everyone is stacked you know you have the group.... I amuses me to watch the stragglers come back and they seem to realize everyone is 'over there' and so they must need to be 'over there' too, so join us?  I don't know, but that how it works out in my imagination combined with what people actually do and it amuses me to watch the herd mentality... and no one has to listen to that 'ready check' noise over and over and over and over and over...

Good day and good luck with terrorizing tankard markets

Sometimes, good ideas and goals need numbers to back it up...

So as I have ambitiously started watching the markets and buying up materials.. gambling that markets will hold about where they are at and baloon after 4.3...   Then I watched tha cash flow... and had to wonder was I going to make it to my goals of stocking up.. the answer is NO...

~2,000 GCEs... market value ~100K+
~1,000 MC... Market value ~ 75K
~1,000 HS... Market value ~75K
~50 - 100 leg armors 3 LW types ~ 75 - 150K (the numbers on each will be determined by sales... need some better data to guess what i should stockpile too...
and then stacks of around 50-100 of many common scrolls...  No idea what this is worth...
TOTAL ~ 500k... or more.. a lot more maybe...  and I dont have that much atm... Guess I need to make more to stock up more...

that leaves me about 100K left to do all the other stuff... stack of scrolls, stacks of leg armors... hrmmm.. a little too ambitious... or I just need to start playing the game for profits now...  Even if I net nothing in the next couple months till 4.3, and continue to go negative... the stocks, the huge huge stocks of stuff will sell.. that I know... part of the issue is also getting a good bit of that mountain I have on ally side over to horde... Its kinda hard to find things to move for a profit over... or even to move on a break even level...  the ally is scarce on the server, the AH empty, the prices that are there sometimes are just plain silly.  However, I may choose to just eat the 15% and move gold...   since I am seing some things to move around for profits in 5x profitability... I may just do that and get more on the ally side and just eat the loss on the transfer... to buy on horde... time will tell, but I still have over 150K to spend on the ally side...   and a long way to go on the stockpiling as I watch my money go out of my bags and into the guild banks in raw mats...

I guess in hind sight I should have had a better PLAN rather than a good DREAM.. now to adjust...

How goes the Pile

Slowly... thats how and its how I want it to go...

Currently the projects have been cleaning out the banks, bags, mailboxes, and stockpiles of things I do not want anymore or will not be part of the 4.3 stockpile... that goes slowly.. secondly some early purchases and numbers on addons to begin piling up the STUFF for 4.3... looking for my sticky points, and looking for my material bottle necks.  One thing I have begun to see, is that some chant mats will be slow to get where I want them.  ATM the goal as modified is 2 Guild bank tabs of GCEs and one tab of dust and one of combined shards and crystals.... 4 full GB tabs of enchaning mats to react with... AND another full of stacks of premade scrolls...

I have found that my initial estimations of ceiling prices for GCEs, HS, and MCs was too low likely to meet my goals... Blackened Dragonscales too.  Water and Air have dropped in ceiling prices to buy, the price of earth is falling like a rock due to what I guess is all the Pyrite prospecting going on...

Pyrite seems to be about 5G/ea and 200/stk... so, shuffling that as i imagine i will get a tailor up to play with the excess dust > cloth and maybe a BS too to make belt buckles... I guess a miner would be in order... Since I have dropped mining on every toon I have leveled.. the BS is currently an enchanter to go with it.. and the tailor has no 2nd primary profession.... Miner tailor??? lol, odd combo, but atm, I have already a scribe/alchy, JC/enchanter, LW/enchanter maxed out... In the works a miner/enchanter, alchy/enchanter, tailor/???, BS/enchanter... Okay.. wow.. how many enchanters do I really need.. but I like enchanting...

Stocking up on the following for 4.3 and setting some market expectations:

Pyrite ore, this is mostly getting shuffled for now.. I am prospecting, crafting and transmuting for chant mats and gems here
Blackened Dragonscales
Savage leather.... leg armor patches... make it heavy and buy pristine hides.. flipping some pristine hides now for easy money
volatiles... all of em... except earth as i watch the price fall... and i am making a ton myself w/ prospecting the pyrite ore...
all chant mats... again some prices moving around, dust is low.. the pyrite shuffle i guess, and the rest are starting to show some stability to buy into the market and have stock for 4.3

spider's silk
large fang

If you figure out what the last 2 are for... well its just for fun, but when in the AH I buy em all out if cheap and do that thing...

Auctionator shopping list is great for all this... just saying...

4.3 willl come and profits could be huge.. if you are prepared....  and even more huge if you are very well prepared...   I will be heavily pre crafted, example around 100 each of the scrolls maybe 150 -200 same with leg armors, crafted stacks take a LOT less space and cost a lot less time to get posted later, and I will be havily stocked on mats...  addons set up for huge numbers and no losses... Maybe I will  get into TSM for this or maybe just go with ZA... Not sure I want to level another toon or couple of them, and stockpile and raid and learn TSM and then play Wii with my kids and watch a movie with my wife, go to work, sell a second house, get a new AC in the new house, mow the yard cook dinner do dishes.. more time with the wife... ... O.o  

TSM just might be more than I really want to do...

Planning ahead to make a big payday, because time is money friend

I have decided the amount of gold I could possibly net w/ 4.3 release is just too large to pass up.  I have now raided Firelands w/ the nerfs... MECHANICS STILL MATTER... but the encounters are much easier.

With the new increased viability for a lot of gear for pugs out of FL.. if you are in current markets,  I hope you are ready for a surge of business... and are stockpiled with mats for the current.  This change in player habits will make it difficult to nail down some good values of material to pick them up, but a lot more players are going to be pugging into FL...  a lot more gear to UG... woot... lot more sales potential... RIGHT NOW and in the comming weeks... the nerfs made the encounters DOABLE, but not pushover, because the mechanics have to be learned by the noobs... but my guess for the next 6 weeks will show a marked increase in sales for FL gear drops people will be getting.  that note is based on  my estimation that ZA/ZG was viable, roughly six weeks for the majority to get the encounters down... learn em, farm em get the gear.. then the surge faded??? This could drive up MC prices.. as more Valor is going to be coming to players from FL bosses, and the gear will get more used and less DE'd... all kinds of musing... gamble on the markets where you feel comfortable... play the game, its a game, have fun...
I have also begun to stockpile for 4.3.  I have 180K on the ally side to spend on mats and move over in preparation.  I am working on watching markets on items that I know will sustain value, and I can craft and use in the early days of 4.3.

Pyrite Ore.... can always use this stuff.. I hope there will be some price drops and massive amounts are unloaded.  I intend mainly to prospect it, though if I manage to level up the BS belt buckles will be a good sell.
Savage leather or heavy for armor patches (dragon scales and pristine hides)
volatiles
and chanting mats, I expect on realeas huge price surges will impact several markets as new gear comes out, the current valor gear is JP gear and then a new PVP season and gear that comes with this.. Gems, Enchants, armor patches... since what will be on vendors and what will be craftable is not known, it intend to preposisiton for several area, and capitalize on things as they come out.

Since I have 2 6 tab guild banks to store things in, cleaning out and focusing the use of those storage spaces will be a project to continue to work on... stacks of precrafted enchants, stacks of gems, stacks or leather armor patches, and if I get the tailor up that too...

Still more to come on what will be included with the big one, but some things are almost a sure thing and there is almost no way to go wrong.  Enchanting mats for sure... so the JC shuffle is in order... but watching prices now and buying low now could make me money now, but when the market dries up on 4.3 release and the following days and weeks, prices will again skyrocket... I think the biggest profit potential is in heavenly shards...  Everyon will quit running heroics and be getting into raiding.. those who have been farming (not the farmer accounts) but raiders who are bored w/ current content and play at farming now will stop and go back to raiding...  ATM, heavenly shards are nearly as valuable or more valuable than maelstrom crystals...  and likely to become more so in 4.3 since so many enchants require them.  Keep in mind to be prepared for the wrath enchants too.. the main ones I know of are the agility enchants for gloves and cloaks that a lot of dps agility classes use and like over the cata equivalents.. 22 agility is by varying margins better than the 65 crit and mastery, or its not better, by narrow margins, but its agility...

I figure 3 months to stack up 1000 stacks of stuff will be a great profit potential... Recently I have hovered just under 500K... and expect to spend my way down to 100K or so... but after 4.3 and a couple weeks of posting... I could easily see myself hitting 750K in liquid in that month that follows...

Thoughts...
-Players habits will change with the patch.  meaning, less casual player farming, focus on raiding/PVP and the new gear
-Supply will go down
-Demand will go up
-Prices will reflect a marked increase.
-Demand will be centric to the high volume low cost enhancements for new gear gems, leg armors, enchants
-Just reselling mats could present huge profitability especially heavenly shards, secondly greater essences (heavenly shards are about 80 at present on my server, I would not be surprised to see them spike to 200 some times)
-Plan to have one full Guild bank tab of heavenly shards and 2 tabs of GCEs  some will come from the AH others will come from the JC pyrite/elementium shuffle....
-The cool part is historically this is a know fact and months of planning will almost certainly pay huge
-More things to pile up will become evident as more info about the patch becomes available is: what is valor gear going to be? what will be rep obtainable? what will be craftable?  Mats for crafted gear... stockpile... if its rep obtainable, stock up to UG those items.. example, in 4.2 it was the capes and belts from the rep vendor... More knowledge of the boss loot tables will also tell... when to list.. how deep is the boss in the encounter... etc etc.. lots to consider.. but knowing what pieces are going to first and early be dropping and having piles of stuff ready to go will be pretty big.  Another question, since only bosses will drop Tier gear... is will the new Barradin Hold boss drop Tier? What new craftable PVP gear? who to get paterns, stock up on things to craft the new PVP gear...

Lots of gambles to make here, however, unless you stock pile to a silly level, even if it does not provide huge imediat profits the items I am going to stockpile will retain value well into the 4.3 patch.  The gamble is less on profit, and more on HOW MUCH profit... and when.  IMO, Pyrite will retain value an in MONTHS time will start to go up as a new expansion comes out and there is low farming in the "old" zones.  Look at the new min max level, and ilvl on gems.  expect that trend to continue and it places a lot of value on current gems for leveling toons through the Cata content.. this is however offset by the very low existence of gem sockets on leveling gear compared to BC.. they realized they made a mistake with leveling and dungeon gear having gem sockets in BC.. great idea, but it made some hard to get rare drop lol ilvl gear BiS for a long time into raiding, due to the sockets it had, and higher ilvl raiding gear was considerably inferior.  So though there will be limitation in the way distant months to come for cata level gems when cata is old, it will still have value to leveling toons and new professions as the new FOTMs change the habits of players over and over and over... leather, ore, gems... volatiles.. they will all retain value. though how much is a guessing game and could even be a long game of exceptional patience... like over a year???

Its a game and gambling w/ markets is fun for me... and being lazy and getting bored with a venture is probably going to happen again, leaving me with piles of mats... then the new dailys and then cash and the leveling in the next expansion will bring a new round of inflation to the game too, soo... gamble...  if you can use a lot of it to level a profession, it will retain value.. if it takes a lot of time to gather, it will retain value.. because, "Time is money friend"

ITS WORK!!! THATS WHY...

What is work... making gold on an AH business...  Its a lot of time and takes a lot of study and monitoring and stuff...

I am thinking about 3 months ahead to the 4.3 release, I expect that it will revolve around the Christmas Holiday... though maybe around thanksgiving... hmmm... your guess is as good as mine...

SO... I have 3 months that I COULD stockpile tons of chanting mats... and scrolls and things... It has MASSIVE Profit Potential, especially if I craft ahead and stockpile gems too...

But, I quit playing a serious AH game based on the fact that I was not having fun, it was getting to be a lot of time and work to maintain...

4.3 is very tempting though... the massive surge of money to be made... I think I could clear 250K profits in the first 2-3 weeks... that could take my 450K I have sitting around and boost me to 750K in a very short amount of time... But do I really want to commit to this... LOL.. torn... I know its totally worth it, but, at the same time, I totally don't need the gold, not right now at least...

What do you think... I think becoming a TSM master and letting zero auctions go the way of the dodo bird may be a good idea... I should go find some good tutorials on that... after all I have 3 months to prepare for this... O.o 

thanks for stopping in

Stupid but fun...

So I have a project guild that is inacitve.. but I had several toons in it while I was experimenting on that... Same guild that was one of the orriginal topics of this blog... 

So, I had a Warlock... it was a troll... and that is one of the last 2 race/class combos my raiding guild needs for the classy achieves and tab 8... HAD... yeah, i was on kicks to make some new play around twinker toons... and deleted that level 35 warlock to make space...

Not even 2 weeks later, I found myself w/ no interest to look for a PUG raid, or run heroics for valor cap, or any other venture on any of the current toons.. SO.. make a new toon.. and what motivates me... the guild achievement this time was the motivation to the new toon.  and a troll lock was born again... this time with a cooler name. Full heirlooms, and a focus on leveling through quests for faster rep gains... at 45% bonus xp from gear and guild perks, you level past zones so quick... they are not even half cleared, and your ready to move on.  Especially since the amount of xp rewarded directly relates to the amount of rep gained. 

Fun stuff.. IMO, leveling toons has been fun ever since the first one that was soo much harder, being a noob, wanting to read and learn and play so much... and get to level cap fast...  etc etc.. now its just fun to do...

Still stupid to make another Troll Warlock less than 2 weeks after deleting one...

On gold making.. still making easy money flipping heavy savage leather into pristine hides... stacks of 8.. its about the only thing I do now to keep my balance even and going up... that and clearing out excess inventory...

Recycling works? Study markets by leveling a toon...

Recycling works?  Yeah...  When it comes to Ideas, and gold making schemes.... most ideas recycled will work again for new fun and profits...

Keep going back to old markets... the ones you left.. yeah.. they are prolly still alive and active and could for a high capicity gobling AH tinker monster be amusing and profitable again... for example.. not daily, but still playing at a couple markets and they still make me smile and smirk.. and tell my friends how stupid people must be... Pets... it absolutely amazes me that the snakes... the horde pet snakes sold by the vendor in Org can be sold to horde players... just amazes me... because they are not just selling, they are selling for huge markups..... :-) taking other peoples money.. 3-10 gold per sale... and as things have settled out recently... the new kitty cat winter tiget pet from Everlook in winterspring.. yeah... still 15-20 gold per sale profits... OR... selling COPPER RODS...  RAWR.. thats always funny that the vendor (and vendor is the ONLY source for a copper rod) is right next to the trainer.. :-/  thats funny... time is money.. their time doing daily for the money to give to you... its funny... just plain and simply funny how easy it is to take their money so easily...   Go back and revist some old markets...
Level a new toon for fun and market exploration...  twink em... you will learn... twinking is a huge market, make a twink and do your lookups on best enchants and such (wowhead has a filter for that)... It has been a lesson to me since I made my first twink about 4 years ago... I could not completly twink out because it was too expensive, but I still did it... I slowly ground out the mats and the rep for that little hunter's agi chants on the weapon and the bow scoped.+3 dmg... and on and on.. twink all the way up while leveling and watch other toons gear in LFD.. you will see lots of stuff.. lots of money making idea.. it is not as high a volume market as say cata gems and chants... but... IMO.. its a market.. and its fun to learn how many ways I can take others gold...

10s or 25s Making the change UP

As a guild struggles w/ character, morals, values, ambition, effort, expectations, goals, personalities and many other things.... You have a very demanding balance to maintain if you take any active role and make any commitment to the guilds success. 

The thoughts on my mind atm when it comes to all of this... the guild is working and considering25 man raids, going from:
1 core 3and4nights/week 10 man
1 slightly more casual, but still progression minded 2nights/week 10man
1 very casual saturday night group 10 man
hrmmmm... Now as I blog this and write that down the problem and the hurdles become bigger and more clear with the other details I am aware of...

At the end I ask the same question, can we go to 25s? and what would it take?

There are players that have family and kids. and dont want the 3 raid nights/week suggested 25 man schedule.  there are some that are hesitant for a multitude of reasons, there are other that dont want to at all really, and some just dont like the raid leader... recruiting, turn over, drama  can it be done and what would it take... musing...

Do you have insight and ideas to help, have you ever seen it done or tried? successfully or not?

Thanks for stopping in

Forgetting the Great Ideas

Great Ideas come to you.. I dont have one of those recording MP3 pens in my pocket to record thoughts as they occur, I am bad about having way to many post its around my desk at work and home. 

When it comes to the blog, it always spontaneous and a result of my personal events recently or reading other blogs... then write... I dont plan much long term for the blog...

Recent events in game that I have participated in have been solely for fun and promoting "Its gotta be fun"

We were able to get a pretty sloppy, yet very hard earned kill on Alysrazor... the kill was sloppy for my screw up that cascaded quickly, but was close enough to the over that we finished it off in one final blaze of glory in the air phase... CRASH.. burn out, win... (got my shoulders and finally my cata epic achieve...)

So whats fun... did a first time full clear w/ guildees of BT and Sunwell.. o.O.. yeah first on both for a full clear.. SSC and TK.. some time... still have never seen the lich king fall first hand either... ehhh...

A buddy was running his hunter in a FL attempt that became a rough T11 raid... he was terribly geared and #2 on dps at like 14K... he was there on MY recomendation that he could be a good fit from time to time with the guild group for Sat night fun/friendly raid event...  Just a backup with my priest healer that could fit when they need a filler to get it going in guild... 

Okay, get to the point... whats fun about someone else playing in a raid I have nothing to do with... Trade chat... hunter... ranseur of hatred... RAWR.. just go buy it and give it away... good stuff.. that is fun.. for goodness sake what am I really going to do with my 4-500K gold?  You can not even entomb me with it like the Kings of Old!!!  enjoy it now.. and what is 20K.. 5% impact.. and one week or so back in the AH game.. pshhh... it was fun to have him feel endebted to me, and be able to tell him shove off... your money is no good w/ me...  that was what I told him a day later.. when I gave it to him he said "How do I ever pay you back?" me, "Can you say payment plan?"  Then next day I told him what I wrote here...  It was fun for me to do... great guy, great player, consistent raider... On point all around...   That was fun..

Secondly, I am pushing for a simple guild event... lvl 15 twink BGs... guild event... just go into BGs at level 15 as a group and have fun... Why is this fun.. well you can control a lot of coordination and group mechanics that cause BGs to fail... Anyone can make a level 15 in a couple hours...  heirlooms are nice, but not required, there is no ilvl or achieve to get in, there is no "be on time or... ", there is no  time where its too early to leave the group.. come and go as you wish, no attendance mandate week to week.. just plain and simple fun... lvl 15 is it.. and if you were 16 or 17 thats all fine till you level before the group and ding 20...
Will have to see how it all goes this friday for the first time... For me I made my toon disposable.. I will go with the group.. but I will also delete the toon no problem and start over to do it again...

Random stuff.. thanks for stopping in

HAVE FUN!!! its a game and that is why I hope you play it.

adding to yesterdays GOLD tip...

Yesterday... IMO I had a completely original though on gold making... At least IMO it was original... I had no seed info or anything to get me to the idea from other blog or anything... Just me writing a blog and  BAMMM!!! it hit me..

Post 4.3 and void storage twink enchants... w/ void storage as it is in its current design and reported by blizzard, it will store heirlooms and it will strip off gems and enchants.  This is storage for transmoggerization source gear and to solve a large part of the tabbard collectors dillema... at least IMO...

However for those with pile of gold looking for an investment to prospect on a long term basis.. this could be a decent return... Twink enchants have a steady market now for the heirlooms.. weapons and chest in particular.  Now as 4.3 comes out, a LOT of people I predict will put their heirlooms in void storage and go on to new content.. the new 5 mans and the big black bad dragon guy w/ a steel jaw like some cartoon character... Now as I see it... as those heirlooms come out of storage in the months following 4.3 release as people get back on alts for boredom or difficulty w/ new content.. there will be a spike in demand for those chant mats.  Go to UMJ and look up the stuff and look at historical prices and buy cheap.. there are likely big drops in prices due to all the old dungeon instances being run now in preparation for the 4.3 transmogging...  

This is one of those long term investments for goblins that have 3 things going for them.. loose gold (in large quantities) to tie up for a long time (months), loose storage space to abuse, and a good dose of patience.. both on the selling end and the buying end... buy slowly now at good prices, and sell later slowly at good markups, as either mats, or scrolls.. remember also things like essence of air... for the agi chants since rogues, hunters and druids all are favorite twinks and heavily represented in the twink world...

This is an investment like pyrium... could go for you and could go ehh.. but pyrium will always have value.. so your potential loss is minimalized... ATM I have over 3000 pyrium... I bought it all at 3G/ea and under.. lately the prices seem to be 6G/ea and I continue to amuse myself w/ waiting it out for the "EPIX GEMZ"

Prices should continue to fall now as people farm the old instance in preparation for the transmogery craze... the craze will die off to some degree w/ 4.3 and new content and will later be one of those cyclical things on a patch cycle.. more and cheaper in the closing days of a patch, and less and more expensive following a content patch release (or content nerf?), either way.. what you farm or store up now will continue to have value for a long time to come.. the twink enchants on heirloom gear will always be in demand... this IMO is a low risk and long term investment gamble.. if you have piles of gold and want to prospect a future market... this could be a great way to make some loot.  OFC blizz could always come back in and say heirlooms will not lose the chants due to forum whiners... or stand by it and say to them.. you still have all the other storage if its a problem.... I am thinking from a technical standpoint (I am not IT smart really) it would not be worth it to them to make enchants get stripped off gear EXCEPT heirlooms...  I see their response to whiners about the 1500 gold cost for a 25 agi enchant to their 2 handed heirloom as being "just store it in your bags or banks if that is a problem" 

Hmmm.. well, its a little weak, and I will probably just go with it... not much of one for a lot of research, but I think I will have to do some research... AS ALWAYS, SERVERS ECONOMY AND OVERALL  STUFF WILL CONTINUE TO SHINE AS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION TO ATTEMPT ANY GOLD MAKING ENTERPRISE...

Happy hunting...

And thanks for stopping in...

Deflation??? Economics??? Medium/Long range investing...

The value of an item is always determined by 2 things as I see it...

1. What the seller is willing to sell it for and
2. What the buyer is willing to pay for it

What a player is willing to sell it for is influenced by a lot of things... bag space? current liquid? why you have it? how you got it?  was it crafted to level? or was it crafted to level a prof? How much gold you have? How much profit you want to or intend to make (or not make)?

The buyers are based on many similar principles.. How much gold they have, what their reason for getting it are, how much time it would take them to get it? Want/Need? and more... its all relative to their current position and dispossion...

The big lesson I am looking at right now... WoW economics and the prices of material and good are under the umbrella of how much gold is in the economy... the more gold per capita we have drives the prices up because often people will sell to the median and the purchasing powers...

Further.. gold enters the economy.. or is minted by 3 things as I know it... dailys MINT gold... NPCs/Vendors, MINT gold.. and the cashflow perk in a guild MINTs gold... everything else is traded.

Gold enters the economy from dailys, NPC drops, NPC vendors and Cash Flow.

Gold is removed from the game by NPCs for, repairs, AH fees and cuts. NPC vendors for mounts, gear, training, reforging, and soon transmog and void storage...

Enter here what I predict will slow game inflation... a new and likely very popular source of REMOVING money from the game... Most will not get to the 30K+ mark and then get what they need for the sandstone drake (vial of sands) but they will frequently go for the sound barrier (epic flight 310%)...  But does this have enough of an impact on the overall gold in the economy to really slow inflation???  IMO the game is getting more and more unfriendly to the new players.. they still have roughly the same earning potential as we did when we were noobs... quest and drops... there is no tool tip or game help that says:

"RECOMENDATION: Gathering professions such as skinning, mining and herbalism provide you an oportuity to collect materials that can be sold in your capitol cities Auction Houses to help you get some gold for your desired purchases.  To find an auction house, talk to a guard in the capiol city and ask directions.  Guards will have (scroll) over their head when you mouse over them."

SO... the new guys sees the shiny gear in the AH that they CAN NOT reasonably afford... so chooses to play that new character in the wilds and gets a crafting profession.  Its a much more romatic game imersion feeling and I know, thats exactly what I did and why I did it so long ago... All, my farming when into my crafting, all my crafting went into the AH at a net loss over selling the mats.. but HEY... time became gold. more than I had and eventually got me mounts and things... Fast forward years later... Many things have SKYROCKETED in price as the economy does less to drain the coffers of player and take the gold out of the economy... Dual Spec... I paid 1,000 gold on 3 toons for that.. now its 10, various riding training... NO IDEA.. but a lot more than it would cost now.. However those are sorta vanity affects.. very useful ones. but there persists the aspect that less money is leaving the economy. and players sell things for rediculous prices because players CAN GET rediculous prices...  Initially after 4.3 hits... A LOT of gold will be removed from the economy... Void storage.. 1K per toon... to me thats not much.. like .02% or something.. however, Transmogging.. people will want to change their look like they change their mounts... and that will be steady drain on the economics... Final prices to transmog gear will be a big factor, my prediction is it will be in line with reforging.  However it will be much more frequent...  People pay a lot more gold for 'Appearance' and 'entertainment' than they do to optimize their gear...  Plus its a whole lot easier to figure out... It is picture book simple. 

Overall.. 4.3 musing.. the economics will change a bit... A lot of AH fees as new stuff comes out... A lot of gold sinks in void storage (I am getting it on every character i actively play and is not a level 1 bank alt, which is none)  and transmogging.. and trying new looks and such...  the farming for the gear to transmog will be an modest influx in the game too, depending on peoples dispositon to actually loot mobs for coin and vendor AH trash. 

I will throw money away.. I will use void storage like a bank unless the cost is really prohibitive... particularly on bank alt sort that I take a fancy to playing for a while, and collecting gear and such then wanting the bag space for banking duties as that fancy and entertainment passes...

ORIGINAL MATERIAL...
(At least I think it is... I have not read ANYWHERE any seed info for this gold making tip... WOOT WOOT)
NEW MARKET to get into... VOID STORAGE??? it will store heirlooms and it will remove their enchants... OOOHHHHH.. people will put it in there to know where it is and not have it take up space.. but Stock up early... a few months into 4.3 there will likely be a pretty decent spike in twink enchants as that gear comes out of void storage, when the gear and raiding push/craze with new content and 3 new 5 mans... It will come out with no enchants... Stock up on all the high end vanila chant mats... Large Brilliant shards, Illusion dust and uhhh... the essences.. yeah, you know the ones or can find em yourself...

Heh.. just thought of that last point as I was writing this... amazing things you can come up with... as you blog...

Okay, yeah, just read back over my own post.. something I do not do often, and it is sorta all over the place, but the message(s) are there.. grats if you made it tot he bottom...

The decline of friends... lists and otherwise...

I remember when there was a time I had addons to make my friends list better with comments and I had problems with the size of that list.. 50 I think it was back in the day...

Now.. I have a problem with getting more than 5 or so that I talk to maybe once a month...

Blizzards goal to make guilds more guildish? or something like that.. and the LFD...

My friends list were made up from PUGs to get dugeons back in the day.. to grind out badges of justice, non tarded DPS, Heals, CC and it went well into raids.. Someones computer down, late at work, car broke.. cant pay for account this week.. the remaining raiders would scower their list for "friends" that had left an impression, a good one at that... and off we would go.. It was rarely a PUG that you had no knowledge of.. Now it is... guild and such are what they are, but the network of friends we used to have has declined... I start a PUG raid.. me and 2 guildee to go work on Alysrazor... 7 completely new faces... dont know them at all.  Some know their guild names and such.. but.... not the player... or the players alt or main even... grrr...

That and the prolific number of alts most decent players seem to have.. no one knows anyone anymore... outside your guild... Raid leading I often stick to the old habits of taking friends over PUGs... but, rarely now does it provide a name of a good player..

The solution... if you are capable and up to the work... PUG raids... now thats a lot of work... and stress and time... and not too fun in many cases...

thanks for stoppin in