Monday, November 28, 2011

It has been more of the same, but close to ready

No idea what the near future holds, with 4.3 hitting the servers tomorrow most likely... I have a raiding main toon, and I have 2 alts to get out and valor cap with for the next 2 weeks at least.  2 weeks of valor capping with 3 toons means that I will get 3 pieces of valor gear on my raiding main in that week.. I think.. in may take 3 weeks since I dont fully understand the changes to valor.. If the cap drops, it will be 3+ weeks...

All the same it will be exciting, new content and piles of gold to take from all the people who have been saving over the recent months for what is coming.

Couple observations:  My review of the loot tables for FL show NO BOEs.. their may be some from trash drops, but not sure... we will know shortly after release, there were just none shown on the Boss drops tables posted on MMO-champion.  That could mean lots of people with no where to spend the gold they have been saving.  Depending on exactly how the new valor points work... and what the weekly cap is, in 2-3 weeks, their will be BOE bracers and boots galore that want chants and gems.  Many people will covert valor to gold at 20K per BOE, maybe 15K for the boots and bracer.  I think the bracers were 1250, and the boots were 1650 Valor... Watch this on the servers and be ready for that 2nd and 3rd week for them to be selling.  Be ready to get that gear chanted and gemmed... Also it appears that the crafting mats only drop in the LFR version of Dragon soul.. did not see them on the loot tables for the normal or heroic... interersting...  Live will tell us more...

Current status:  As of my last look this a.m. the last week (since tues) has shown over 350K in gross sales... a bit of that was BOE drops from FL (15-20K).. but some updates...  I think initially there will be a lot more UGs and a much higher frequency for enhancements as the current gear and the new gear from the new 5 mans, is upgraded to the gear from the LFR and then upgraded again to the gear from the actual normal raids.  This could spell for a much steeper and faster increase in inflation after realease.  Or.. since the LFR and LFD do not care about gems and chants, many will not spend the gold on the, "It's getting replaced soon, and not worth it players."

Precrafted scrolls: over 1,000, based on recent sales volume this will be about 1-2 weeks supply. If that in some cases, and a little more in other cases.  I will need to plan ahead for the massive bracer/boots chants in the 2-3rd weeks following release.

Current market value of mats in those scrolls: over 300K (the cost invested in those scrolls)

Expected sales value of those scrolls: 400K or more (this is bases on recent sales prices, and I expect prices to go up and this to be a good bit more)

Current market price of stocked chant mats: over 300K (last look at the enchant mats, and volatiles in my bags, the volatiles inflate this number as many of them will not be used for enchanting,  Many will be going into belt buckles, and just flipped as the prices go up.)

I imagine, without any concrete numbers to back it up, other than my recent post, that the LW mats, gems and other stuff I have piled up, is worth about 4-500K...

The trick is now to sell it and actually get the gold in my bags... This is going to be fun.

No idea without doing a detailed analysis of all my mats and other things I have what I will really be able to sell for, but if my preparation and guesswork of how to prepare was anything close to accurate...

GOLD CAP is about 2-3 weeks away...

It has been just over one year since i really started at this game and really took a break from it for a couple months in the middle.  Durring that time, I shifted my market from inscription to enchanting and LW consumables.  I do have a significant pile of LW mats and may venture into the Crafted PVP gear scene just to off-load those.

Good luck if it is tomorrow... and have fun in dragon soul or your favorite city, or....

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Are your ready? Almost? Is your server ready? Talk to your competition..

Jafo over at Auction house grind posted on 4.3 stocks and plans and oops... To him and all players in the game its another great post on 4.3 preparation plans, YMMV based on server and markets and stuff... its always a gamble and its always fun...

First off, I disagree on 2 points.  FL will be "easy mode" and the legendary will still be sought, so regular groups will run I think.  It will be quick easy valor for casuals, 7 bosses in around 2 hours... and often prefered to LFD and LFR runs fo many mains and alts.  Look at how many still run BWD and BOT and TO4W... there are not as many T11 raids as T12 raids, but there are pretty regular /2 trade spams to get the T11 raids going, look at what to BOEs are selling for to get a pulse on your server and watch trade for current trends and such about the raiders and RBGs and BOEs.  The volume of BOEs and prices is IMO a good temperature gague on what you may expect..

Second on his post he suggests don't stockpile on precrafted enchant scrolls, pile on mats and stay flexible... Ehhh, great advice depending on your position and your market analysis and research... YMMV... and I opt for another option... BOTH, stock mats and scrolls.  I have been for months, and continue building stocks and doing market anaylysis of sales volume and potential for posting paterns and precrafting volume.  Auctioneer I think is the addon that tells me 3day/7day/total sales on items.. so a mouse over the scroll and I know what volume I ran for the last 3 and 7 days.  I started all scrolls in stacks of 2... if I sold out I moved it to 3>4>5>6 or 7 if I sold out, 7 is my current max per post, this is in part driven by undercutters and market volume and potential.  2 things here, one, moving up per post volume is to cover market "POTENTIAL" and the sales numbers show market "ACTIVITY"  some are steady and some are spikey.  You will be undercut and it seems a good place to start.. some things I sell little, but very spikey volume. Ex. sell 4 one day and none for another week.  Others, I sell steady at ~50/week  Over a couple months, I have a good set of data to base having 40+ precrafted scrolls of some types (or 80 each) AND...  I did the same thing as Jafo... I guessed.. and continue to guess, so I will realize many mistakes as I go forward.  Goal is 2-3K GCEs and I am close, and 4-5K HDs, dont care about HSs so much... (markets are hard to guess in the early weeks on what HSs will do.)  MCs, I am close to 1,000...  so, I have goals, guesses and market trends from personal observation to base things on, and I suspect some areas, as usual I will be wrong... but I will be smarter...

Another reason to precraft... I raid.. and dont want to invest the time crafting when i want to be raiding and valor capping my valor slaves for my mains BOE valor gear...  So... I will have regretable mistakes, My volume estimates are based on current situations of players, buyers and competition.  The patch will hit, players will return volume estimates based on the preceding weeks/months will be wrong.. ehh, its something to start with and it will be easily adjusted up.

On 4.3 stockpiles and competiton,  I talked to a guy in a pug raid say he had 6 guild bank tabs of pyrite... it got me thinking... patch day is a money maker.. trends are trends.. but at some point people start to jump on the band wagon and it waters down the value as more try to capitalize on it... are patches far enough apart to reset the trends of trying to make the gold, are players busy enough w/ new content to change the markets, and will this be the patch where...
"There were just too many stockpiles that were just too big, on too many goblins for the high profits previously realized on patch cycles." 
I worry about that.. okay, its a game and pixels, so not really, but its a point of thought and curiosity. 
One thing I do get and people I do talk to is the suppliers... I buy monster volumes of "stuff" and frequently will get a seller to /w "you want more?"  My reaction is always the same, "? more what?" since I am buying chant mats, leather, ore and other stuff.. no idea who that random guy is, but the oportunity may be there to find out what that "supplier" is planning for 4.3? continue farming? go raiding? one player over and over will start to also give you a good picture of what you may see in your server.

Honestly, I dont think people will be ready, and the markets will crash and climb.  Mats prices will go up, and so will finished goods... if you have piles of cheap mats, you will have a chance to capitalize massivly... 

People/players are inherintly lazy and continually looking for the quick gold play.  the lottery if you will.  The get bored and play other games, they do not plan ahead and instead scream and whine about the new "high" prices and then pay since that is the only option we give them.. they may go farm for mats, but, back to the first point, inherintly lazy, and the time to farm will be often skipped to get the quick UG enhanced... Really, who wants to show off their new 391 tier 13 gear or the next PVP season gear, with no gems or enhancements... they will get laughed at and you know they want to show it off...  If they got it week one or 2 and such.. they won the lottery, they will want to tell everyone that they are better than you since they "earned" and got that gear and you did not.. lol at the luck #s from a Baradin Hold Drop...  but they, in their mind, for a time get to be better than you...  And a few of them, quite possibly are better than you...


Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Enchanter Tip for 4.3

So read on a bit for stupid comentary and the tip.

For now the markets continue in many areas show decline in costs for mats.  This is having far reaching impacts into my current situation.  I dumped a bunch of gold, most of my liquid into some markets to prospect and potentially profit.  time will tell if that works.  The impact is I am regularly running a low (sub 10K gold) balance.  The second thing is waiting out the storm.  Do I change my thresholds to sell?  As material cost go down, I am getting undercut more frequently, and finding a lot of auctions are posting back to the fallback.  I may go try to push some prices down a bit, just to get some higher turn over, and more liquid gold to invest in markets.. I continue to push some stocks up, mainly been hugely successful getting a lot more Maelstroms crystals.  Up to nearly 1,000 in stock...  still running high sales volume, but its all getting reinvested into my bags and banks as much as possible.  No real changes in what I have been doing, Just being more selective in my purchases and not buying everything in sight below my threshold, mostly since I am out of gold, and also I am nearly full on the bags and banks.

So what is this tip for enchanters... HRmmmm.. Can not take credit for it myself, I got it from a guildee, but it was a great tip and good point.  In the early weeks following 4.3 release there is going to be a HUGE demand and after that a continuing large demand for the rogue dreamers... I really mean rogue... There is going to be a LOT of rogue going out and working to get their pair of shiny new legendary daggers... That is going to create a pretty large spike in demand for "Enchant Weapon: Landslide."  Further guess work is up to you as YMMV, many of these players are going to be guilded w/ G banks full of mats and just get em hooked up for free, many will know its comming and will have scrolls in their bag for the moment they get the Daggers.  So there is the tip.. Enchant Weapon: Landslide... Evaluate how well this sells now and be ready for a pretty big spike in volume in the early weeks, it may be a great plan to sell in stacks of 2 also.  Good luck with your 4.3 gold rush enterprises.  I will likely pre-craft upwards of 100 of these things... :-) I may sell out in a week to 10 days, or I could continue to unload for many of the following months.  Eh.. its all for fun, and its all for gold...

Thanks for dropping in

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

How I got started? 1Mil in sight! How did I get here?

I was once that guy that was "okay" w/ normal speed flight because 5K was so far out of reach.  Then wrath hit and my first maxed toon was a BS/Engi... what a horible combo to try to level up professions early in an expansion.  I remember... So, I found a way to make a good amount of gold on my time investment.  Zap clouds for crystalized fire in sholozar.. it got me over 5K and got me the first epic flight toon..

Some where along the way, I shifted away from farming/dailies for gold... Fast forward to the end of Wrath.  I still have those 6 level 80 ally toons on another server and have not touched them in a long time.  A complete hard reset on my part occured and I started from scratch on a new server, with a new faction and a new toon and NO assist.. that first toon did not even have heirlooms.  I leveled up w/ herbalism/inscription because I wanted to play at the DMC game.. and what a game, less than 6 months to 400K and less than one month back to only 100... leveled a second toon enchanting/LW droped herbalism and went alchy on the first. Got out of the scribe market (did very little with glyphs)  I caught the 'wave' in those 346 relics and the 359 DMCs... and made piles and piles... That was the first really addon use and learning experience.  I now still focus on enchanting and LW leg armors, and a few other easy markets.  Its coming on a year of learning and study to be able to look potentially at 1M + gold.

In some ways because it was raiding ambition to get back with some old friend on a new server, that I did a hard reset to the way I play.  I quit chasing mounts, I quit chasing pets and achieves... but in the end and looking back I had little choice but to "BREAK the CYCLE"

"If you always do what you always did... You will always get what you always got!!!" 

That cliche sums it up... It was a Hard reset, it was starting over and looking at things in a new way.  As I leveled I was seeing information in addons in a new way and was making limited entry into markets based on what I could obtain at the level of the toon and professions.  Having done a little PVP, and a fair bit of raiding, as well as twinking lowbies and pimping out bank alts, chasing achieves and playing tanks, healers DPS, I knew a lot about the potential influences in markets.  I would regularly scan the AH and evaluate things like the price of herbs that would mill for the same result, but put em on the AH and the results were NOT going to be the same.  So as I was herbing for a lot of xp and gold and inscription leveling mats, I was also watching for what to sell and what to mill, what to buy w/ the gold and what glyphs were potential money makers and what ones were solid losses and which were break even types...  That was the only glyphs I really played with.  The ones I used to level inscription, but it taught me my first lessons in patience to offload slowly the piles of glyphs I crafted to level over weeks.  I also learned the value of "Lil Sparky's Workshop" (LSW) and market evaluation, and learning it will LIE to you, or at least miss lead you...  The same with LW, and enchanting.  LW does have modestly to low profits in the lower end, the level 10-15 gear can be turned over for profit.  But not it its in an heirloom slot, and not if it does not have Str/Int/Agi and stam... go for the twiker leveling guys or the twinker PVP crowds... start as soon as possible crafting only for profitable sales, and if you can not level profitably, start crafting for minimum loss.  This was easily done w/ LSW.  As I started into this I played w/ vendor pet flips, and niche markets like Primal Might xmutes, and low level twinker items... as I focused my eforts on enchanting... In the end it has become a process of guessing markets and never selling at loss...  If it does not sell, Prolly not going to play at it.  My focus now has moved away from most non-raid low volume itmes to Higher volume and low deposit cost items. 

Belt buckles is the one item I am playing with that does have a deposit cost, but volume and profit margins make it negligable.  Posting 5 at a time and no canceling when reposting on them I think i sold over 70 in 3 days...  I made a guess here on the market, as with every item, but its a good example of the process in a "case study" of how I evalute each item for sales.  1.  Suspect it will sell  2. Prove it will sell 3. Identify time invested per sale 4. evalutate potential for sales volume 5. calculate deposit costs into profit margins 6. Start snatching mats at low prices 7. Work precrafting goods into routines 8. Re-evaluate sales and posting schedules, volume and markets for current turnover.  

Overall on Ebonsteel Belt Buckles (EBBs) I found I regularly and quickly was undercut.  The server pop is large and trying to wall in the competition was not under consideration.  Deposit cost are more than negligible, but not opressive.  I found posting 5 would often sell 2-3 quickly before getting undercut, but leaving the other 2-3 on the Ah would lead to eventual sales.  So they go up for 48 hours and I dont draw massive attention to my posting paterns at 5/posting.  I may end up with 20+ on the AH, but I have already commited the deposit cost, and when the other guys sell out that undercut me, mine will sell.  This is also influenced but the auctionator dispay to manually post item.  I noticed few regular posters posting over 10 per posting... I am also posting 5/ on my main posting toon and then manually posting 5 at a time on the crafting toon...  Posting paterns for me now are most mornings, early evening (after work), later evening (before raid) and and late night (after raid).  The later ones are often done multiple times too, since I will cancel post, snatch mats, craft piles of stuff, and then cancel post again right after work before dinner.  So, in a day I can easily end up posting 30 EBBs/day.  Another thing I will often do is just Post.  I have items to post in piles in my bags, of the higher volume items, and I will skip the cancel -> collect mail -> restock -> post and just post again from what is in my bags.  This slows down the next cancel/post routine since I will be canceling much higher volume of items with the undercuts, but ehh its a quick way to get more sales.

If your new the markets, I hope this help, but at the end of the day, patience and persistencs proves that time is money. 

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Updated numbers on 4.3 prep, 1million gold in sight???

As I go over, the list to evaluate where I am and where I was, its a good thing to identify where I want to focus the next couple weeks for stock piles.  I have less gold atm, and the only down side to that is that I no longer have a chance of influencing the market as I was and maintaining prices near my thresholds.  Recent significant declines in prices I am seeing have been HSs, GCEs, HDs, Blackened dragonscales continue to trend down.  And even with 2, 6 tab guild banks for storage, I still lack the potential to grow the pile to the levels I wish. One thing I will start doing more is likely increasing the Mailbox shuffle for storage.  Previously, I could clean out the AH to, and sometimes above my threshold and I would "reset" the market for a couple days at most, before I came back and cleaned it out again.. Now.. I have to just look at those cheep mats I would have been buying and know my competition is stocking up... GRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!

I would like to Increase the MCs stock, and the GCEs stock.  As sales increase durring this raid reset, this will be an area of focus.  Volatile Earth and Volatile fire are both going to also get a greater focus to pile up in prep for 4.3

I do have a MUCH better Pile of precrafted scrolls... The current market value on those is HUGE, with great potential to increase a bit too.  I have full stacks or 20 each of almost all the enchants including ones like power torent and landslide, bracers etc..   Some or the higher volume sellers I have 3 to 4 stacks of 20.  Right now scrolls have been set into various posting volume groups, and I post 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2 each time I cancel post.  If I sell out, at any time it goes to the next higher number to post.  I have only sold out 7 scrolls before another round of posting a couple times.  Due to undercuts, and campers, posting more than I am now, just seems less productive, for now,  but with higher volume I will be watching closely in early 4.3 to increase volume.

 EST: PREVIOUS GROSS WORTH... .8 MIL (liquid gold and mats, precrafted items)
 EST: CURRENT GROSS WORTH 1.2 MIL (liquid gold and mats, precrafed items)
all the numbers are estimates and memory of current market values.  the two biggest fudge estimates are the tankards...est at 500 ea.. (they could be 1500+ and they could be 100G MC, ehh), and also the scrolls.

300K is probably a low estimate for current value, and 150, may be a high estimate, no way to check the previous value, but that will be my next project.. evaluating the current value of precrafted scrolls.  I just picked 300G/scroll to figure value, and that is just a rough guess...

So... At this point, I have learned and now I would estimate that I have increased my gross worth significantly in about the last  2-3 weeks.. rough estimates is about 300K or more... seems like a lot, and I will be looking to better justify that number.  But value increases are not just in sales... all the ore converted to profitable numbers in EBBs and HSs.  Lots of leather converted to pristine hides and leg armors is an increase in value. Chant mats purchased converted to scrolls, increase in value...

All of these values are based on CURRENT MARKET.. and not post 4.3 markets, which will likely show some increase in prices and volume... It will be a busy couple weeks.  I have 2 Valor Point slaves, one is a 372 ilvl priest and the other is a 350 ilvl hunter.  working on gearing the hunter, and the goal will be to valor cap both of these toons weekly for the BOEs, to give to my main, and also valor cap the main for more gear.  All this while whatching markets, and cancel posting and unloading this Monster pile... If any of my predictions are decent, I will hit a million within a month following 4.3 release.  To see that potential... that is nice... And I may completely fail, as I use the piles of gold to buy BOEs to raid.. :-)

The Piles as they stand now... [estimated market value in gold brackets]
(there are a few other mats I am hanging on to atm... like cloth that I have no real current marketability for so are not included in my gross worth... )

  • [11.5K] 11,500 was [109K] 109K -Liquid Gold (ouch that is a small number)
  • [45K] 481 was [43K] 460 -Maelstrom Crystals (hard to keep in stock and build up piles crafting and selling scrolls)
  • [32K] 512 was [10K] 160 -Heaveanly Shards (Got a BS to do the shoulder shuffle... woot)
  • [80K] 1630 was [65K] 1300 -Greater Celestial Essences (still want more, need more gold)
  • [2.8K] same was [2.8K] 4700 -Hypnotic Dust (always cheap, will get more when I get more gold)
  • [37K] 75 was [32K] 65 -Dragonscale Leg Armor
  • [42K] 84 was [16.5] 33  -Drakehide Leg Armor (selling decent so stocking up)
  • [24K] 48 was [18K] 36 -Charscale Leg Armor
  • [3.6K] 45 was [3K] Scorched Leg Armor
  • [4K] 51 was [4K] ilight Leg Armor
  • [55K] 220 was [2.K]10 -Pristine Hides
  • [47K] 4700 was [12K] 1200 -Blackened Dragon Scales (prices fell, and I have more than I want, its a gamble now)
  • [26K] 1200 was [20K] 900 -Heavy Savage leather (in case i want to craft next seasons starter PVP gear)
  • [12.5K] 2500 was [10K] 2000 -Pyrite Ore (for buckles or to prospect)
  • [0.8K] 81 was [.3K] 34 -Pyrium Bar (making buckles now)
  • [0.3K] 98 was [8K]3200 -Obsidium Ore (all got crushed into heavenly shards)
  • [0.3K] 59 was [5.5K] 1100 -Obsidium Bar (all got crushed into heavenly shards, and also buckles)
  • [null] 1 was [10.5K] 2100 -Elementium Ore (all got crushed into heavenly shards, and buckles)
  • [4.1K] 830 was [4K] 800 -Elementium Bar
  • [0.6K] NEW 61 Folded Obsidium (for crafting to make the HSs)
  • [29K] 957 was [15K] 502 -Carnellians (ooo... I like it... make GCEs or Inferno rubies...)
  • [3K] NEW 1250 Heartblossom (to transmute rubies)
  • [65K] 130 was [62K] 124 -Tremendous Tankard O' Terror (still waiting on prices to go up)
  • [est. 300K] over 1,000 was [est. 150K] ~500-Cata Scrolls (lots of chant mats here)
  • [17K] 176 was [17K]178 -Inferno Rubies ( have not been prospecting lately)
  • [3K] same was [3K]160 -Demonseyes
  • [1K] same was [1K] 106 -Ocean Saphire
  • [1K] same was [1K] 140 -Dream Emerald
  • [1K] same was [1K] 102 -Amberjewel
  • [1K] same was [1K] 119 -Ember Topaz
  • [10K] same was [10K] 100 -Shadowspirit Diamond
  • [10K] 3100 was [19K] 6600 -Volatile Earth (using a lot on leg armors, enchants and on belt buckles)
  • [60K] 10,000+ was [48K] 8000 -Volatile Life
  • [67K]4500 was [42K] 2800 -Volatile Air
  • [35K] 3500 was [38K] 3800 -Volatle Fire (need MORE!!!)
  • [66K] 4400 was [40K] 2700- Volatile Water
  • [19K] NEW 172 Ebonsteel Belt Buckles (selling well,  but not at massive profits)
  • [90K] NEW 193 Truegold (see last post for comments on this)

Monday, November 14, 2011

Pixels.. and Fun...

Taking other peoples gold via the AH is fun and easy.

However getting more return on the time and gold investment make for risks...

As always, time is money.. you spend time and often some amount of gold to get a return on your invetment.  The GPH evaluation works in simplicity, but in the end, the goal is less time and more gold. because when you have 5 and 6 figure or higher liquid goald the cost does not matter the GPH calculation on it does.

So, things that have me muttering about my own plans stockpiles and status of affairs in prep for 4.3.

Epic Gems?  Will they be from any source other than Raiding???   Will there be xmutes available?  Some info is out, but I think they are keeping some details in the bag on this one.  The preparation w/ monster piles of pyrite people had... would have destroyed the market and devalued the Epic-ness of Epic gems... Overall, Epic is more firmly and better back in epic gear, than it was in wrath... IMHO...  Xmutes could be on a 1, 3, or 7 day CD, and could or not share a CD w/ living elements and Truegold.  Eitherway... spending aroung 100K in couple hours stockpilin left me temporarily broke... Like, under 10K on the account... EEEYIKES!!!  have not been that low in a LONG time.. still it comes back fast since I have revolving sales and run about 200K/week or more in gross sales from auctions... So I bought over 100 bars of trugold to add to my piles...

Things about Trugold and other itmes... they will retain value.. they will almost certainly go up in value, and stand the potential of going up GREATLY in value... but the losses are likely to be minimal... if at all..

The trend with this patch in the AH... IMO and by my evaluation, MANY of the farmers are just average Joe Casual Player... maybe a raider bored w/ content or more play time than scheduled raid time etc...  Farming is still a great way to make gold.. just there are IMO better ways for me...

4.3 will hit, New 5 mans will be out, new raid zones will be out, new LFR will be out, a changed LFD tool, A new PVP season will be starting and then a new BH boss, alts will need more gear, as it becomes more obtainable, more alts are at level cap now than before, more time will be spent gearing up toons and the AH market place will dry up for mats at current prices, since a lot of "casual farmers" will be raiding, valor capping in dungeons, gearing up in new and "HARD" content etc...  Cardinal mats, leather, ore and chant mats are just going to start going up in price... for the month following release.  If epic gems are xmutable, and share a CD w/ truegold.. it will go up in price dramatically, but I suspect that it will go up in value anyway, and the majority of the player base goes from their present "farming/dailies" routine w/ a one night clear in FL... to multiple full evening sessions commited and dedicated to the new raid content in dragon soul on their main, and then the LFR and other ventures on the alts...   less questing, dailies, loremaster and such for the "drops" of voalites... In the last month as the molten front dailies were completed the price of volatile fire has gon up almost 100%... there were a lot of drops of volatile fire in those dailies.. now, less people doing them and less fire on the AH...

In the end, its $12.99/mo (6mo at a time) and the rest is pixels and fun...

The plan tonight is to compare and contrast my last stockpile status in this post to my current pile.  should be some interesting numbers I hope... I may even get bored and spread sheet it to estimate my current gross worth in stocks.. but, since I manged Rag in a Pug this weekend first time on 2 toons, tank and healer, I have some prep work to do for this comming weeks raid and going into heroics....

Either way, The next post when I get it done should be a good one.  Recent posting, has slowed down, since I am not doing anything new really.. the big investment into truegold is the only thing really that I am doing new...  Just more piles and piles.. well, I have also started into Belt buckles and the shoulder shuffle for HSs... though this weekend there seems to have been a couple people doing that too, and crashed the market... raid times are coming back and so will prices and sales... bought a bunch, just to flip durring raid times Tues-Thurs...

Enjoy your PIXELS... Enjoy the game...

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Shifting markets, I wants their gold...

The biggest pain of running the business... well there are 2...

The time it takes to push all the buttons for DEing, Milling, canceling auctions, posting auctions etc.. its a lot of time to maintain the "Status Quo"

That was the second...

The main thing is the thresholds are like gas prices at the pump.. rarely are they the same week to week... Some things are like loaves of bread the price is pretty darn predictable, week in and week out.. Vendor Pets for example...

Enchanting... mmmm... not so much... There are daily shifts of 20-30%, and there are weekly cylces for volume more than price.. and then the game of guessing... how long will prices to buy and sell hold.. and when do you go reset those buy thresholds up and down and your sell prices up and down too...   Then going into the snatch list, adjusting, and then going to the spread sheets as I am continually overstocked and getting more at lower cost... time to send that price down in the snatch list, then the spreadsheet and then transfer that new lower price to a new threshold to sell at in ZA...  Why cant I be lazy like everyone else...

CAUSE I WANTS THEIR GOLD....   thats all... muahhh hhhaaaa haaa hhhhhhaaaaaahahahahahaha

Monday, November 7, 2011

Just do what works, and keep on doing it...

Sometimes just doing what you always do works better than your historical track record...

Sunday... I did a cancel post in the morning and let it go for the day... WOW... log in in the evening and 26K gross sales... Normally, my big sales are Tues-Thurs, from a cancel post durring preraid times, and another post raid times.  Those frequently pull 15-18Kish gross sales... So, I was surprised to see 26K for a Sunday.

Just continuing to do normal things, and keep doing it.  There will be surprises you could not predict.

Update... Finally got the impatient people holding on to Tankards of terror... there are a few more hold outs that are trying to reset the market to extremely high numbers, about 3-5 times what I would hope to get.  They keep going for about 10-12K listing on them... Anyway, I bought out a few sellers and the volume on the market seems to be less now... and I bought those out at less than my average purchase price for all the others...   Should be good times now... I still need to wait it out and be patient with listings.. this market could get to cutting into profits greatly at more than 20G AH deposit costs.. But the patience seems to be getting primed to pay off...

New things...  I have finally got the warrior bank alt to 75... that means he got to grind a lot of ore and bars into stuff to power level it up and also Make PILES AND PILES of stormforged legs... Not sure just how many, but my costs are about 60G per set and the HSs that will be DE'd out of them are going for 85ish...  Decent profits, and should do well having my own stocks.. its nice to see my enchant scrolls competition buying my HSs... HARRR!!! that is great... The down side is the time to make the shards is a bit much...  If I get into the time investment...
Obsidium Ore > Obsidium Bar (1.5 seconds) > Folded Obsidium (1.5 seconds)
Elementium Ore > Elementium Bar (1.5 seconds)
Stormforged legs or shoulders (1.5 seconds)
SO.... 4 Obsidium bars to make 2 Folded obsidium and 8 elementium bars for the Armor to DE.
15 X 1.5 seconds is 22.5 seconds minimum crafting time... Plus mail box running for mats and to offload the crafted goods sending them to the DE'er and then DEing em (my estimation is 10% gain for using the Guild perk for DEing, and that guy does all my DE work)... round it out to 30 seconds estimated.... per 20-30 gold profits.. so 50G per minute roughly...  that is 3K per hour to use that standard that I do not like but it works if not abused....   However it also gets me mats at low cost for my enchanting market, that will let me under cut others and get more sales... so its worth it.. and I will not sit on the AH constantly cancel/post undercutting.... So, I have pleanty of time to do it... and the profits are not terri-bad... The main motivation to do this was to get to where I could not be stuck with the market prices of HSs... they get silly from time to time and are hard to get at the volume I need, at or below my threshold.  So, create my own source... and sell excess...

Not much else going on... still raiding, and still have not killed Rag... GRRR.. I quit on rag early the other night and went for the our legendary questor to the boss for him to progress.. Took a couple pulls to get some details straight, then it was pretty easy all considered...  The first time we went in there we were doing it? wrong? the harder way?  anyway...  quick adjustment, and success in short order... IMO it was a better end to the night, rather than one more wipe on Rag... especially when the best attempt the group made was the first one, and it never did get better... so after the first pull it was zero "progress" and piles of frustration and disappointment... So, we ended the night with a kill instead...

Market notes... I buy a lot of mats... leather/scales, Ore, and chanting mats... I have started to notice a pretty steady decline in some prices.  Leather and scales.. there is often so much below my threshold that I do not buy it all, I am running out of room store a lot of mats... (and I mad about that like its a bad thing...  wierd thought)  and I am buying mats hand over fist for 4.3, the new 5 mans, the new raid, and the new PVP season... Next market to get ready in is belt buckles...

Sales focus... I continue to list things that STACK... in PILES.. like leg armors and scrolls.. I also like these items since they have such a low AH deposit cost... to me its negligible... 1S... PVP armor, does not stack, takes a lot of space to craft and store, and since I have yet to start using TSM, easy, but time consuming, to manage crafting.  Or at least thats my excuse, and they often have High Deposit costs... making it sorta dangerous in my mind.  Or at least another step to figuring out thresholds...

So... I continue to craft piles of scrolls, sell piles of scrolls, stock up on chant mats, Leather and Ore/Bars... sell piles of HSs, and piles of leg armors... Next up.. Belt buckles...

Well, I hope you get out of this reading it some of what I got out of it writing it.   What did I get?  GPH estimation and time investment for the HS, BS crafting numbers... and a reminder to myself to get busy with the Belt buckle crafting market..

Happy farming your AH...

P.S. hmmmm... farming the AH... new blog title... "Goblin Farmer's Almanac for the AH" or just "Goblin Farmer's Almanac"  random passing thoughts...