Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Current standing 4.3 preparation stockpile

Though I do not run extensive analysis, or evaluation of why I am piling to my current and future levels, I think I have enough gold to show that my experience and gut feel is going to be pretty decent, and the risk of huge loss is minimal.  For instance my plan to stock and sell the tankards of terror is still not working out.. the big loss on this one.. ~50K turns into about 15K if I DE them all to maelstorms at current market prices.  Silly.. sure, its a game...

A Picture? not on my blog... Oh wait...

The Piles as they stand now...
  • 109K -Liquid Gold
  • 460 -Maelstrom Crystals
  • 160 -Heaveanly Shards
  • 1300 -Greater Celestial Essences
  • 4700 -Hypnotic Dust
  • 65 -Dragonscale Leg Armor
  • 33  -Drakehide Leg Armor
  • 36 -Charscale Leg Armor
  • 61 -Scorched Leg Armor
  • 50 -Twilight Leg Armor
  • 210 -Pristine Hides
  • 1200 -Blackened Dragon Scales
  • 900 -Heavy Savage leather
  • 2000 -Pyrite Ore
  • 34 -Pyrium Bar
  • 3200 -Obsidium Ore
  • 1100 -Obsidium Bar
  • 2100 -Elementium Ore
  • 800 -Elementium Bar
  • 502 -Carnellians
  • 124 -Tremendous Tankard O' Terror
  • ~500-Cata Scrolls
  • 178 -Inferno Rubies
  • 160 -Demonseyes
  • 106 -Ocean Saphire
  • 140 -Dream Emerald
  • 102 -Amberjewel
  • 119 -Ember Topaz
  • 100 -Shadowspirit Diamond
  • 6600 -Volatile Earth
  • 8000 -Volatile Life
  • 2800 -Volatile Air
  • 3800 -Volatle Fire
  • 2700- Volatile Water
    Other items w/o current market

    • 1300 -Embersilk Cloth
    • 2400 -Nethrweave Cloth
    • 700 -Runecloth
    • 430 -Frostweave Cloth

    I have a few other "toy" markets, but this is the big stuff atm.... Untill I get another crafter or two leveled up...  The warrior Miner/BS is now 64...  And has a large pile of ore and bars I have been gathering...

    What are you stockpile goals?

    Thursday, October 20, 2011


    I am running into trouble maintaining my desired inventory of heavenly shards, and Greater Celestial Essences.

    I keep my enchants on a new spread sheet, where I change the "cost" of mats and all derived enchants cost changes.  bouncing those numbers off of my prices in ZA takes about 20 min.

    Since I am rotating scrolls at full speed, I have a large turnover of mats and keeping stock on them at prices has led to more research.  I knew there was a BS crafted item that could produce HSs and possibly lower costs.. I found that to be Stormforged shoulders or legs...  I also new that carnelian spikes for GCEs could be a good exchange.  I added to my spreadsheet a few new boxes to play with to determine return on DEing Carnelian Spikes and stuff to play with and evaluate my threshold for buying Carnelians.  I have not really seen a lot of procs on the guild perk DEing them, not in a noticable way.  But I make sure to always DE with the guild perks guy.

    I have finally come back into a large amount of liquid gold to play with and buy out the cheap mats when they come up for sale.. I know i was short on gold when a couple opportunities to buy a lot of GCEs below my threshold passed by.  I added carnellians to my snatch list.

    I have also started pushing up my threshold for Blackened dragonscales... and cleared out one bank tab and begun to stock  Heavy savage leather, I have around 200 Pristine hides and more than that I am not sure it will sell in the planned window.. always easy to conver the Heavy to pristine... just the Heavy takes a LOT more bank space... as well as the Blackened Dragonscales...

    The Warrior... going to be BS Miner/smelter has gone from level 30-520 in the last 10 days...  Going to finish off the candy buckets in Kalimdor for another level and I will likely get into the outlands buckets for a good bit of xp that way...   If circumstances present themselves, I will also get a load of xp with a couple more toons that way.. IF.. IF you are level 50+ its really easy there was only one flight path on E. Kingdoms that I had to run and get.. ALL the others were Flight pathed into.  That is a new thing with leveling toon.. you dont have to go find the FPs.. you just know them for your appropriate level to get to the zones applicable to you...  No mor long runs for quest, just long flights, which comparatively are not so long... In essence if you never quested E. Kingdoms.. and hit level 60 all on Kalimdor.. you could go to EK and fly ANYWHERE there is an FP... good stuff.

    The tankards of terror still seem to be lingering in the market, there are a fair number for sale all the time still.. the median price is around 7/800g, so even selling what I can now, I am making aroun 50-100% profits... and I have enough that I suspect I will see the price go up more...
    I have successfully moved over 100K of mats purchased mostly on my snatch list from alliance AH and put them to use or storage on Horde.  I also moved a few pets and made money on them, and I am about to stop with all that for now.  Just scans for rediculous good deals... I will need to have some reasonable capitol on ally to do any future business, and thing on the AH sell slow.  I think it is a friends/guild/alts farm culture.. just very very little I have seen seems to move... Even what I would expect to be high volume items like HD.. just does not seem to sell. 

    good fun still, though I am back into the grind and balance and stocking and crafting game so much that my alts get less attention.  Raid, AH PVP, craft, when all that is done for that session and crafted mats are back to an acceptable stock, then I go level the alts... Hmmm.. choices choices.. More alts or MOAR GOLD???


    Thanks for stopping in...

    Tuesday, October 18, 2011

    Another post same day... What is the right way, what is wrong...

    I read a lot of blogs, more often than not, I find the info mehh, as I have sorta come close to "done it all."  Though it amuses me, it keeps me shard, and occasionally I get some little bits that make things moar gudar... (yeah, thats a word)

    Let me qualify that with this statement, I have probably done it, and I may have or may not have been good at it, but I had fun, and when it quit being fun I quit doing it... or something like that..

    Havin beein in blogs of one sort or another on the game of wow for about 2 years? moar? Most have centered around gold making... I have seen trends of some to attack others and say "This is best" or "That is fail" "Or... fill in the blank with an over reaching declaration of fact that is often so squewed by perspective that its value is diminished since it is as I simplify it, an, "I did this, you can too" or "You're more effective to do this than that"   I hope I have not done those things, though I may have... My intent with the blog is just an extention of the game, and enjoying it in another way.  The rich community of bloggers is vast and I am sure I will not read a lot of them... 

    My point is this... though most I continue to read, many have started to turn me off with their content or the stylization of the delivery or something else...  My imagination tells me this is driven by numbers and/or goals to monetize the blog.  Generate trafic etc etc etc... And I blog for fun, and game for fun.. I wonder where those guys started, and how close to the grounding philosophy they started on they currently are now.  Of the blogs I have read, though it seems to have gone silent, was Stokpile... if you don't know him, look him up...

    In closing the biggest comment I will say is YMMV (Your Milage May Vary).  Server economics, Server size, cometitive PVP/Raiding tendancies of the players, your faction, access to multiple toons and professions and multiple accounts, or friends to maximize your game time and gold making...   I am placing a new focus to continue what I believe I have kept fairly well to with my blog...  Its for me, about me and if you get a take away all the moar gudar... (yeah, thats a word)  Back to old posts and concepts.. The post on P a while back... AH PVP, and Goblin crafting to coordinate with the AH PVP seems to becoming a competitve e-sport... but how serious to you get about YOUR PIXELS... And do you like who your became when the reaction you had to an event got the better of your character?  Certainly, I have given little pieces of myself to the game, swearing at the screen for one (quadruple ambushed by rogues in WSG at level 18) .. mad at other players and thier idea of fun being destructive to mine (camping their mamoth on the auctioneer/banker/NPC of choice...

    I laugh at myself later and frequently at past transgressions and how serious I can get about a bunch of pixels... Play for fun, raid for fun, PVP for fun, AH/goblin for fun... just remember to have fun..

    more next time.. write at you then

    Taking a guess at the Pyrite not being Epic gems source.

    I have been seriously in some markets recently and am noticing a trend.  Particularly with Pyrite and Volatile Earth... Neither are falling into my threshold much any more and both have the ability to spike.  To me this is an indicator that the Pyrite in banks has largely been sold off of prospected.  Just my guess, but when prices of Volatile earthe were consistently running 3-8G/ea and the AH is emptied out to 18G/ea price...  To me that is a key indicator that supplies have run out and leaves the question: "Is it temporary, or long term?"

    Volatile earth will continue to be in high demand for the multitude of uses in multiple crafting professions, smelting hardened ele, crafting leg armor, enchanting something (I just know I use a lot of it for those 2)... etc... you can do you own wowhead search and see what applies to your markets... but if the price is jumpin now in your market, expect it to jump a lot more in 4.3.  Attention to these Cardinal crafting mats and the trends they have in the market.. make a guess, watch some more, and confirm or strengthen the evidence to the hypothesis and quantify the previous information to a valuable morsel of gold making data.. OR, in some cases the a morsel of date to not LOSE gold... heh... the sword does swing both ways.

    Trends and threshold shifts:
    - GCEs: not sure yet, but looking like I may need to go up on this one soon
    - MCs: holding out and steady for the most part  Weekly cycles show big ups and downs, but stocking cheap and not when the prices cycle up
    - HSs: also a big cyclying, on these, Still buying cheap, but maintaining stock w/ a BS friend to craft stormfoges sholders/legs for DE
    - HDs: seems to keep spiking low in high volume.  Enough to keep my stocks up.
    - Savage Leather: (scraps, and heavy too): I am getting alot off the Ally side, and horde, no problems here, about 200 pristine hides in stock
    -  Blackend Dragon Scales: Already moved up a bit here... and prolly going to keep moving up,  I am just not able to get any significant stockpile... PVP gear and leg armor will demand a lot of these things...
    -Volatile fire and life: Stock piles reached and threshold lowered... still picking up what I can dirt cheap
    - Volatile water and air: slow and steady.. these are doing fine, though they go throgh pretty big swings in the market
    -  Volatile Earth: mentioned already, but likely going to need to move the buy price up to meet goals for 4.3 prep.

    just starting to get into obsidium and elementium ore and bars for the BS crafted stuff to DE for HSs...

    some more inventory management (unload junk to make space for piles of more usefull junk) and I will pile up a few more things...  Namely Heavy savage leather, (currently converting all to pristine hides) hardened elementium bars,  truegold (still xmuting daily, almost)  Herbs for xmutes of epics... MOAR CHANT MATS..

    Other news.. Magic lamps from the ally side are selling for a steady 2500 at a cost of about 1K to craft, a couple a week.. easy money IMO since I am moving so much between factions anyway... will likely move some BOEs or such in early 4.3 to play with the BIG number.. the amount of Tankards in the market seem to be dwindling... good news they may sell out soon, and then my market influence will be massive... Will prolly set up a 2K wall maybe 1500 or 2500 to see how it goes... or all 3... and let the others flounder.. its really hard to imagine that the other guys w/ tankards have anywhere near 100, much less the 130 I still have.. its gettin interesting and its going to be FUN!!!!  Need to look over the craftables for 4.3 and look for equivalent weapons... if there are not but from raid boss drops... I can see a lot of rogues using these... rogues will become popular again with the dream of getting legendary...

    As always coments and feedback welcome.

    and thanks for stopping in...

    Monday, October 17, 2011


    GCEs, tough to get to where I want to be with them for overall number in stock... Since am now running a low ballance on gold as most of it is tied up in marketable goods, I have missed some oportunities to buy at some prices that are better than going rates a day or two later.

    Over 100 Pristine Hides and over 2K volatile earth, life and fire.  Working to get the air and water up too.  I am now maintaining stacks of 2 each of many scrolls but there are some I will be build bigger stocks of.  Some I have bumped up to 7/cancel post and still sold out overnight.  Stuff like that is going to take 3 plus stacks to be semi ready for 4.3.  When 4.3 hits, the more I have pre crafted the more sales I will be able to make since I fully plan on, and intend to be raiding too...   Back to the weekly grind for valor caps etc, into the new five mans for fun and that one or 2 pieces of gear.  So less time crafting is a good thing IMO.. big stocks of pre crafted items for sale, a very good thing

    The other thing I am finding a hard time getting enough of is blackened dragonscales.  I was doing okay, but I am not building ahead now and getting larger stocks of them or the dragonscaled leg armor.  Which is the best selling leg armor for me ATM.  Overall, still lots of fun, but a lot of time and work too.  Precrafting though allows me to craft when I want to, not reactivly so that is nice...

    UPDATES: The warrior went from level 30 to level 48 this weekend, and so far I have sold about a dozen tankards of terror... they are not yet selling as well as I would have hoped they would by now, but there is pleanty of time yet. for prices to baloon. Its fun to watch the markets and see if your guesses are accurate...  

    The more I think about it.. One month after (give or take YMMV etc... ) 4.3 hits... heavenly shards will be nearly crashed.. Maelstroms will be on the rise...   Since, as I have read the current heroics... all of them and the new ones will give the same amount of valor.. I for one hated gettting groups of baddies w/ no idea about the content in ZA/ZG about a month to 6 weeks after they released it seemed to just get worse.    But it was a real toss up rather to do one of them for 140 valor or 2 old heroics for same amount of valor and different valor caps per...   Given the choice, for valor grinding... Old heroics will be speed runs for points.. and a by product will be a lot of heavenlys and a lot less maelstroms....  then, atm the market for HSs seems to be getting carried by the DEing of BS crafted gear... so maybe it will only fill the gap, but I really tend to think not... I am guessing now that the end price for MCs will be 50% - 100% higher than it is now.  This will hugely affect markets.  Since the LFR will be looking at ILVL and enchants will not be accounted for so cheap will do... as prices for MC chants go up the markets will follow and the use will be less.. Gahh... I have completely talked myself out of all the convictions I had in my mind...  I am convince of very little now...

    What I do know:
    4.3 will be a gold mine
    HS prices will drop, or MC prices will go up...
    Stocking MCs is probably a really safe gamble
    All other chant mats, though less so the HSs is a good bet
    Leg armors are a great gamble

    Friday, October 14, 2011

    Reasons to have all professions/alts

    Well, as I run high volume enchants markets/scroll, I find frequently that in the current market ther is a lack of heavenly shards... With the new Maelstrom shatter, I will not stockpile them for 4.3, since I can stock "more" via MCs, less bag/bank space.  However, as I am purchasing more and more, I notices piles of 20 to 30 on the AH both horde and ally side for the same price, presumably the same seller.  That led me to go looking for a lower cost option for them.. Nothing w/ tailoring or LW, not with the mats and prices I see normally, however, Stormforged shoulders and legss both look to be what "those" sellers have been using.. Based on wowhead searches.  Basically, in the last 2 weeks since playing seriously in the Cata chant markets, I have raised my purchase threshold from 80G/HS to 100G/HS...   And I knew I was feeding someone elses gold bank buying their HSs...  Not that I mind TOO much.. but I would rather A: have a steady supply, I clean out the AH regularly and B: not pay so much for them.  I have a friend who owes me favors.. and I will slave into BSing a ton of them for DE..  If my calculations are good, I can get mats for either for 8 x ele ore and 16 x obsid ore.  Or 4x ele bar and 8 x obsid bar.  OR 2 x folded ele and 8 x obsid bar... bars are about 5 gold each for either, so my cost are going to be around 60 gold... much better than the 100 gold I am paying and the EASY gold someone else is making off me because I have not maxed out a BS on this server in Cata...

    Time to take time payments from my BS friend.. Send them mats for 20 per mailing... 8 stacks of ele bars and 4 stacks of obsid bars... about 1200ish, and get 1600-1800+ gold in mats back...  even at 6 gold per bar it would be 14.4k invested to make the HSs... still much better then the average 90-95G/HS (18-1900g) I am paying... more gold means more stockpiles.. Also need to DE them with my main Enchanter who is in the raiding guild.. more mats... from the guild perk... not sure what that works out to, but its MORE GOLD FOR ME.... :-)

    and I guess its time to get busy with that bank alt BS/Enchanter.  Its a warrior tank, and has full looms.. so it should be pretty doable to get to 75 soon... then back to the tailor... level one of them... A tailor would be better able to use the cheap HD I get.. that is the only reason for that... I guess part of me WANTS a miner, not to farm, but to AFK smelt piles of cheap ore into bars... but which toon to do that with..

    The crafting army (some are still in boot camp)(I mention raiding guilded because of the perks not available to "banking/crafting toons"
    1.  Raiding guilded lvl 85 Druid: (raiding tank main): Enchanter/JC Not heavily used as a crafter, but he is my DEer since he is in the lvl 25 raiding guild w/ the PERKS!!!
    2.  Raiding guilded lvl 85 Priest: (sorta shelved atm): Scribe/Xmut Alchy, great to have the xmute when I spread out in markets and do some shuffling of ore, or I want some glyphs for an alt.. but not heavily used, Darkmoon Card/trinkets was my first big market that I sold relics and OHs early in Cata to suplement income.. that is an old game, and I no longer play at it.
    4.  Bank Alt Guilded lvl 85 hunter: (the toon that started this blog actually): LW/Enchanter, this toon is my current POWERHOUSE gold maker crafter, poster, I have a 6 tab GB to play with, I have his bank loaded with 7 (i think) 36 slot chanting bags, piles of mats in the banks, the piles of scrolls and STUFF to be ready for 4.3 or stuff I am still hanging on to... for whatever silly reason...
    5.  Raiding guilded lvl 65 Shammy: (fun toon wanted to play enhance, last was resto ele) Alchy/Enchanter  I have been leveling the profs as I go so not interested in dropping one profession to get mining or BS though this si the closest toon to 75 I have. 
    6.  Bank Alt Guilded lvl 30 Warrior: (Was always just a bank alt) BS/Enchanter, This is the first toon to get busy with I think, full (purchaseable) heirlooms and I can tank through dungeons, and he is a BS...  Making him a Miner and dropping Enchating... hmmmm... not like I will use his enchanting to DE the BS crafted stuf anyway... he is in a bank alt guild... so, I would craft stuff and send it off to the druid to DE anyway... Mining is not for ore gathering, so the guild perk would not matter, mining is a crafting profession via smelting... think thats what I need to do
    7.  Raid guilded level 45ish Warlock: (leveling for the guild classy achieve) Tailor/None:  still lower level, I think this is my lowest interest/priority of the 3 I am leveling atm...
    I have more, like my 8. ally mage, tailor/chanter, 9. PVP twinkish rogue, 10. a low level priest twinker... 11. warrior on second account, 12. warlock Neutral AH trader on second account

    So.. that all writen out and worked out in my head now... I need to get busy with that bank alt warrior and boost mining up... Now I have a plan, I hope you got some insight to the value of and Army of Alts... There is a large time investment to leveing alts, but, there is a finite amount of time I can valuably spend cancel/posting Auctions...  I try for 4 rounds/ per day to cancel post normally, A.M befor work 7-8, early evening when I get home 5ish, and mid evening before raid 7:30ish, lasly late evening after raid 11ish.  I think the majority of sales is from the last 2, but the crafting and stocks evaluation happens through the day so the later ones can happen quickly, with a quick grab of stock from the bank and trip to the AH to post.  Alts and plans... I think the warrior bank alt will get pushed, then the shammy for utility and fun.. I could see myself playing the shammy to a raid level... :-) should be fun all around...

    Thursday, October 13, 2011

    Some more estimations on 4.3 prep

    Thinking more on probably sales, numbers and time frames surrounding 4.3...  the release will probably mark the end of the current PVP season.  And a one week calculation time prior to the upcoming season and the entry of the new boss in BH.  So, initially there will be a surge of new gear from the 5 mans, as well as from the LFR tool and the new raid zones...  Initially this is going to cause a huge shuffle in gear as UGs are obtained, and the BiS from other sources.  This will be concurrent with the current PVP conquest gear availability from honor vs Conquest and then later the new Conquest gear, in the following weeks... as well as Valor gear.

    Here is the mass of predicted sales and thoughts behind my stockpiling goals.

    Week One: New 5 mans, lots of gear for some casuals and alts.  Since it will be 378 gear, it will firmly kill the FL raid zone except for achievement getters or an odd piece of gear to fill boredom time. The LFR tool will be running and drops will be coming out of there, as well as the new raid zones. 

    Week Two:  Some valor gear will start to get purchased and need enchants as well as another round of week one.  This will also mark the begining of conquest points and gear accumulation, as well as the BH boss drops (or the following week)

    Week Three: declines will be noticed as the farming of the new 5 mans shifts.. the good raiders will have all their gear, and since they can do normal heroics for the same amount of VP I expect that route to be taken.. This will show w/ a significant drop in price of HSs as they become more available, and MCs become less available.. This will also be another good week for the PVP CP gear most likely and the BH boss drops

    Week Four:  This should show some beginings to stabilization and decline in markets.  As well as some boredom in players raid tendancies...  Less time invested in new 5 mans.. boredom (frustration) w/ content or difficulty of raid time to farm for mats, do dailies or get gold to craft BOEs, buy BOEs and make content more available.. Mats will begin to come back into the market from non "farmer" accounts and be more readily available at more consistent prices.

    This is my estimation of many events that will occur, many of the guesses could be a week or 2 off, easily, and YMMV depending on markets, competition, server economy and tendancy to raid/PVP.  In my estimation this is the golden month.. where whoever has the bigger stockpile of mats wins... If you have 2,000 GCEs you bought at an average of 53gold (like I presently have) and the market price of GCEs spikes to 75G (or more)  I can continue to sell at current thresholds and still make monster profits, and do not have to spend time looking for resupply... With, stack of precrafted scrolls, when the market is hot and moving, I can spend my time relisting sold and undercut auctions from stock, quickly with out having to resupply mats, or craft the replacements.

    Still my goals are diverse and should cover a lot of market turf as well as make a ton of gold.  I started with roughly a combined 450K ally and horde.. down to aroung 150K, but I have monster growing stocks and consistent market research to plan the attack for 4.3 sales...

    OH.. wild thought.. I have stacks of scrolls from leveling and some that I mistakenly thought I would be able to flip.. they sell for about 1-3 gold normally.. The game will change and the leveling of professions will diminish.. people will play thier mains and not level alt professions, or work on leveling toons so much.  I wonder if i will be able to get more out of those scrolls afte 4.3 release... worth waiting probably.. not much to come out of them now.. but even if they go from 3 gold to 10 gold (still below mats cost)  thats still more gold at the end of the day...

    Good luck in preparation for 4.3

    Wednesday, October 12, 2011

    The pile for 4.3

    I noticed a guy in trade looking for living embers for crafting the FL paterns.. I offered to sell, but he did not want to pay my price.  A self proclaimed "jewish" sort.. heh.. He then mentioned he had flipped them for profits, and was saving for 4.3 BOEs.. RAWR... I love that guy...  As he is busy saving I am busy busy busy spending spending spending....  ATM, I am constantly reseting the market on heavenly shards.. since i came back i hav seen the price go up 25% on average at least.  Its time to reset the snatch threshold and reset all the ZA configs to not be losing gold on sales w/ enchants that use HSs.  I was getting them 80 and under, now I am up to 100 and even 105 per.  Well.. having 15 Magic lamps made on the Ally side.. that was 120 shards.. and time to get more... still 8x100 for HS, 1x100 for MC, and 4x55 for GCEs is 1120gold to craft the magic lamp on ally side after moving mats from horde side over (they are almost always cheaper on horde side) and then have them crafted, 50gold tip to the crafter, and prolly going to up it to 100 per crafting.. soo  1220gold and some time to move mats and goods across the neutral AH.. easy w/ 2 accounts and dual boxing... sell em for 2500.. sold to quick.. 2800 seemed good, and 2900 seemed slow.. That is undercutting the competition by hundreds as they seem to list them over 3K.. I will take my sales and 1K per profit... more gold for more stockpiles for 4.3...

    The volume of goods, mats and such I am still building up is difficult to build and maintain.. since I am actively selling, and my stockpiling is dependant on sales now.  I have a revolving low balance... but at the same tiem 65k in sales yesterday. and 65K in purchases.. roughly...

    The things I am having trouble getting ahead on:
    Blackened Dragonscales
    Heavenly Shard
    Volitile Fire

    The things I feel I am well positioned on or well on the way:
    MC are starting to look good
    Pristine Hides are slowly growing

    Overall its a lot of mats, not sure on the total numbers, but working on about 1-2K each volatile about 2K GCEs, 5-6K HDs  Still maintaining about 40 of each leg armor, and working on more market info to determine stock posture for 4.3. Dragonscale leg armor seems to have the best sales most of the time, but I have a feeling that is just the nature of the patch cycle and all the others will come into higher demand come 4.3 the tanking/PVP varietlies in particular.  Dragon scales are heavily used for the PVP gear paterns I think I could simply FLIP a TON of them in early 4.3 for 200% or more in profit.  Volatiles I suspect the same...  chant mats will just become scrolls since I like the market and full expect to turn over a lot of scrolls for higher profits than the raw mats.

    A new IDEA.. need to look into profiling my ZA.. a tues-thurs profile and a weekend profile.. the volume on tues thurs is just that much higher that posting 5-8 per will be good on those days and 2-4 on the weekends.. Then if its not possible.. oh well post 5+ all week long... 1S to post a scroll, that's not hurting me....

    Good luck with your plans

    Friday, October 7, 2011

    More Speculation and Stockpiling Plans for the 4.3

    SPECULATION:  Now with more info of potential implementations in 4.3... Guessing at what will have value in 4.3.. particularly in my enchanting market... At present, I think I may prepare to shift the market, and raise my threshold on MCs... I strongly suspect that about 2 weeks afte 4.3. or there about, that MCs will see a fairly shard increase in price.  I base a lot of this on my current buying habits on MCs.  they are usually in ones and 2s before raid in larger quantities than after raids.  To me this indicates a huge majority of them are comming out of the troll dungeons.  Why the troll dungeons? because you get 2x the valor for a troll hole as you do for a normal heroic.  However, at present, the plans to implement valor will be to get 150 from ANY HEROIC... so, what do you do.. you got all the gear from the new troll dungeons in the first weeks... all the good players and raiders now speed run the original 4.0 release heroics for the same amount of valor, and the LFD in the new 5 mans will be rough... It will be somewhat like the speed runs for badges in Slave pens back in BC... This is going to take a lot of MCs supply out of the system, and increase the amount of HSs... combined w/ the HS shatter, HS will drop in value and MC will start to be at a higher premium. 

    STOCK UP ON CHEAP MCs NOW!!! IMO.. do what you will, evaluate markets, server economy and such for the best informed decision.

    HERBS... for the transmutes, IMO it's safe to gamble a couple K on plenty of herbs in line with the current transmutes for rare gems, in preparation for the epic gem transmutes.  Its likely that the prices of herbs will go up as the farmers and daily questors will head out of the quest and farming zones and head for the 5man, LFR and organized raids.  even if you dont use the herbs for transmutes, you can still unload them raw or use them for another profession....

    Supply will go down.. and demand will go up.. how much and what markets is where the gamble is. 

    However the gamble is very small on cardinal mats (leather, ore, bars, cloth the stuff you have to have and use to craft ANYTHING w/ a given profession).  If it has value now... it will continue to have value all the way through 5.0 at least... so even if you dont make a killing, which is likely, you can get all your money back, or... all plus a small profit, or a marginal loss would be odd, but could happen and even so, its only a marginal loss.  If you successfully unload your stocks prior to 5.0, you will be fine, and many things will retain value and then go up in the months following 5.0 if you did not get to unload them.  If you fail to unload just hold em for a couple months.  People will still need to level professions, there are new level and ilvl restrictions on the gear enhancements, that leveling players and twinks will want to get... so what has value, will continue to have value.

    So stock up on herbs, and stock up on gems... Good plans IMO if you have an alchy, especially a xmute alchy...

    Also stock up on volatiles.. Though, it is not clear yet, you can bet that new PVP paterns will be out.  These are most likely going to be the same everything as the current and just change over to a new higher ilvl for the "starter" PVP gear.  FIRE and WATER are the big 2 for crafting the PVP gear.  I guess my plan is to shoot to have 2-5,000 of each volatile and maybe more of some...  

    Though, I have a problem of liquid gold to reach out for these goals.  At present, what I have stocked up is around 1K GCEs, nearly 40 of each LW leg armor, 5K HDs, and I usually have aroun 1-200 MCs and HSs...  As, I continue to rotate stock, I increase my liquid and stocks.  and for now reaching my goals is hard while rotating stocks for profit in the AH now.  I am burning a lot of HSs and MC on great volume of sales of enchants... Yesterday, gross sales was 15K in the a.m. before work, a bit more after work, and 34K after raid, with another 9K this a.m.  So, I am firmly back in the game of selling and making lots of gold.  I seem to stock up enchanting velums about 200 at a time every couple days.  This a.m. I did some market looking and some more to do on the UMJ for items, but I raised my snatch threshold on a couple items that I am not seeing any snatches come up on.  So the piling continues, the plans evolve and the goals are multiple and diverse.

    Current evaluation of sales is going to be helpfull since the amount of materials I plan to have stocked is large, precrafting lots of items like 3 stacks of 20 scrolls of peerles stats and mighty stats as they are good sellers, will cut down on the amount of raw mats and space to store things, and still be positioned for the massive gold mine that 4.3 will be.

    Stocking up on
    Pristine hides
    blackened dragonscales
    all cata chant mats
    all volatiles
    herbs (for flip or xmute)
    LW leg armors

    UPDATE on the tankards of terror...  have not sold one yet, but I am playing with one at a time in the market.  Prices have seen a solid 100% increase, but the UMJ will be needed to get an idea of rather or not sales are happening..  Prices definately spiked, and there is a lot of potential, but the question that remains is there enough demand.  Time will tell.. and I look forward to the outcome.  At present if any modest demand presents itself, i stand to make around 50-100K, and that could become 3-400K... if demand presents itself...  still lots of alts being leveled as FL has been out a while, more time for players to spend on alts, alts have to be geared, cheap options for returning players, and new players for good weapons... I am pretty sure it will be there, however, the question remains, how many others are doing what I am, and how big is their stock of tankards.  I have been watching the market w/ curriosity, and noticed an increase of auctions listed and after an intial price spike a decrease as the undercutting goes on..... With The High AH deposit, I am going to be carful with how I approach this, but I also have to be agrressive since I have SOOOOOOOO many of them to unload.  140? I think?  Its going to be fun... worst case is the ~50-55K invested becomes 14K in maelstrom crystals (current market value 100G ea).. more if I wait till 4.3 and the likely spike in MC values.  IMO its a fun gamble to play with.  Basically sell 50 at current market (800ish gold) and shard the rest it would be a near break even... but all this is the assumtion that market values for a no longer obtainable good item will stay that low.. and that in 4.3 the MC values will stay the same and not rise.. Neither of which I think is likely... the potential to lose is IMO minimal, and the potential to profit is great, and  LARGE PROFITS are likely...  4.3 hits and it will still be a good item.. if its cheap it will be a huge jump in the avg ilvl for a newly minted lvl 85.  Heck, I would buy one if it was an equipable item and store it in my bank just to get my avg ilvl up so I could go to heroics...  But hunter will use em, rogues will use em main hand for sure, Off hand if they are baddies, enhancement shamman will use em both hands, frost DKs will use em for the weapon base DPS, furry warriors (SMF) will use em for the base DPS, and average Ilvl, I could even see a few sword and board pallys and warriors using them...

    see you next time

    Thursday, October 6, 2011

    Goblins take others gold... I forgot how easy it is...

    So... atm, I have fully reentered the market for sales... I was running out of gold to meet my intended stockpiles for 4.3, so had to start moving inventory... all the past lessons and methods clicked right back in.  some set up and investment on it all, however, now I am emptying 15K gross daily from the mailbox... I never sell for a loss, and profit margins are likely in the normal 20% range on average. 

    LW leg armors
    Cata Enchants
    A few arbitage sales from the ally side as I continue to move the 150K from ally to horde, and attempt to profit in the process...
    And Tremendous Tankard o' Terror. I have about 120 of them to sell, average buy price was about 375G.. 

    On the tankards... they should be easy to sell at a profit, now it will only be time to figure out how much.  The source is gone, brewfest is over.  The only thing to be slightly cautious of is the 21G deposit for a 48 hour auction... that could make it a little nasty if an undercutting game gets going...

    Selling enchants... same old method of tracking and monitoring inventory and sales to replenish.  And now my stock pile of mats is still growing to where i want it for 4.3.  I also needed to make some sales just to know what scrols and leg armors to stock up on.  I am gathering that data, and increasing my posts per auction and separating inventory to support this.  Basically, if I sell out both auctions, I increase the amount posted per posting to 3 per posting.  as time goes on, i will find some I am sure that I will be able to post at 4-6 or maybe more per post.  Mighty stats to chest is a really popular enchant,  that will prolly be among the highest volume enchant.  As I ge the data to support, mats will be converted to scrolls for storage as they stack to 20 and take less space than raw mats.  but having 60 or 80 scrolls stock up that can not be reasonably expected to sell in the 3-4 weeks after 4.3 is pointless, but scrolls that I know will sell in high volume like mighty stats to chest is will be fine to have 100 of them stocked up... if i sell 4/day average, 100 would last me about a month...

    So, a brief summay of the plan.
    Have 20-100 scrolls of each type to sell following 4.3 release, have 1-2,000 GCE, 500-100 HSs and MCs and around 5,000 Hypnotic dust... If I need mats to make more scrolls I have them, if the count on scrolls looks good, I can sell the mats raw.. prices are sure to spike for a while.. particularly GCE IMO... HD, seem to be available in mass frequenly due to the shuffling of ore, and my guess is grinding up Pyrite.  Though not knowing and having just got back into the game on the AH, I can not be sure... Now may be a great time to also stock up on Volatile earth, UMJ may give valuable info to set some thresholds...  Materials will slow down entering the market, people will not be doing daily as much, or farming.  They will be out farming the new 5 mans, and LFR feature and organized raids...  This could have a large impact on the MC supply, though it will also have a large impact on the MC demand and inturn the demand and supply on HSs. 

    Good luck in your game, will let you know how the tankard gamble works out.. right now, I guess I have about 40-50K invested in tankards... If I sell half of what I have at 1K, I will have my money back.. though I suspect, prices will in the next week swell up to 2-3K.. I could easily stand to make 100K + off this venture, or lose my tail.. though the losing part seems a distant possibiliyt.

    Thanks for stopping by

    Monday, October 3, 2011

    What will prices do in 4.3 enchanting...

    It is safe to assume a couple things... If you are currently crafing PVP gear to DE for Heavenly shards this may or may not be viable...  Things I am watching now as I pile up for 4.3

    Maelstrom Crystals.  ATM they will shatter to heavenly shards.  My prediction is this will overall RAISE the value of MCs... People will be lazy and shatter for HS even if they are cheaper on the AH... New five mans will provide an influx of MCs to the market... this will lower prices.. the guessing game is where it will be as the dust settles in the month following 4.3 release.  More MCs, and more new gear to use them on.  New raid zone, LFR, and raids that will be another source of MCs and gear to use them on.. Overall, My guess is for the first couple weeks they will rise in value by 50-100% and then settle and new higher value at 20-50% of current market value.

    Heavenly shards.. the new source is likely going to be shatter, rather than old heroic blue gear, and the PVP DE gear... My expectation is againg the initial 50-100% rise, but they will maintian AH/market value around the 60-70% of an MC in the AH.  Why over 50% since shatter will produce 2 HS... well time is money and people are lazy.  The catch on this is that a lot of shattering will be done w/ enchanters that have guilds that will have the mats perk... not sure if this will produce extra HS like DEing does now... but it will be interesting to see... and rather the guild perk applies the bonus mats to DEing like greenies now to the shatter?  is it a crafting recipie? I think so, but it could be a DE...

    Where am I now.. well, working on rebuilding the ZA database for all current Cata enchants... I dumped my entire addon folder and the reloaded the game from scratch.. so the old stuff is gone.. now I am identifying sales rates for enchants.. which ones to stockpile and which ones to NOT pile.. some will never have value and I am marking some on my spreadsheet as DNC (Do Not Craft)..  They are the ones used heavily by leveling enchanters and they are not popular enchants for any class spec really...

    I am also continuing to stock up leg armors, mats for the leg armors, chants and mats for chants..  A rough goal will be to have 1-2000 GCEs, 2-4000 HDs, and 500 plus HSs and MCs too... all that while having also 20-60 precrafted scrolled based on sales history and what will move w/ volume.  As I set out to get to this goal, I found money going out fast and no income.  As I reached a first goal of one guild bank tab full of GCEs... I started crafting enchanting scrolls to stacks of 20 and started listing to get some sales history.  It also told me I am going to have to be more aggressive in purchasing some mats to run the business and stock up.  Leather gets bought up and crafted to leg armors and turned into prisitne hides... I was trying to sell pristine hides in singels and stacks of 8 (8 is needed for the FL paterns) and that would usually get me 100-200 gold per hide profit.. though, one pristine hide and dragon scales/volitiles in leg armors will get me 2-500 profit per hide used??? since I can not get enough leather to do both, I am going with the leg armors for now only.  I am presently maintaining stacks of 20 each epic leg armor, and 40 or more of the rare quality ones... Mostly looking to get sales numbers and know what is safe to stock up for 4.3.. 20 dragon scal leg armors? or 5 stacks of 20?  what can I expect to sell...

    Still buying on both sides and moving stuff over the nuetral AH... chant mats, and leather mostly... 

    I think I have over 100 tremendous tankard of terror now... all bought under 500 gold each.. 3 days to see if that 30K can be turned into 100K? 200K? 300K?  once the source is gone prices should go up... how much is yet to be learned... Last look i had purchased 77 @388G avg... that was last look... now prolly near or over 100, and if I was able to sell at 1,000G ea... that would be an easy 60K... but, unless there are a lot of other people doing this on the server, I think I may be able to sell them at 3-5K each.. still cheaper than the crafted strength mace, easier to get, and better for MH and OH for an enhancement shamman execpt FL drops, Heric Nefarian, and there is a better OH that is a 346 blue from one of the heroics since it is 2.8 speed... and all others are 2.6.  that heroic 346 weapon for enh shamman is the librarians paper cutter from wrath for rogues... that said, the purple 365 is good, more available, PURPLE, higher Ilvl and all that... so.. I expect a lasting market... DW DKs will use them for the base DPS, rogues and shamman, SMF Warriors will use them, and I could even see some sword and board tanks using them... In 3 days... I will likely have over 50K invested in them, and will get to watch markets and see if its payday... brewfest will be over.. and so will the oportunity to get them from anywhere but the AH... or a friend... or have planned ahead... Lots of people do plan ahead.. their gearing plan for the soon to be 85... but lots of people DONT... had one guy, an enhancement shamman that /w at me to say "thanks for buying my tankard, now I can get MCs for landslide for the ZG claws..."  WUT??? lol... he is putting exceptional enchants on inferior weapons... and to some degree very much inferior weapons... so, people like that guy give me their gold over and over and over.. enchants and gear and more and more... his reason??? "because i have to like the way it looks...."  my guess he will like the way his dps on the meters looks later as he changes his weapons out more than the matched pair of fist weapons, and will come up with a good reason that wielding a pair of tankards looks cool....