It is safe to assume a couple things... If you are currently crafing PVP gear to DE for Heavenly shards this may or may not be viable... Things I am watching now as I pile up for 4.3
Maelstrom Crystals. ATM they will shatter to heavenly shards. My prediction is this will overall RAISE the value of MCs... People will be lazy and shatter for HS even if they are cheaper on the AH... New five mans will provide an influx of MCs to the market... this will lower prices.. the guessing game is where it will be as the dust settles in the month following 4.3 release. More MCs, and more new gear to use them on. New raid zone, LFR, and raids that will be another source of MCs and gear to use them on.. Overall, My guess is for the first couple weeks they will rise in value by 50-100% and then settle and new higher value at 20-50% of current market value.
Heavenly shards.. the new source is likely going to be shatter, rather than old heroic blue gear, and the PVP DE gear... My expectation is againg the initial 50-100% rise, but they will maintian AH/market value around the 60-70% of an MC in the AH. Why over 50% since shatter will produce 2 HS... well time is money and people are lazy. The catch on this is that a lot of shattering will be done w/ enchanters that have guilds that will have the mats perk... not sure if this will produce extra HS like DEing does now... but it will be interesting to see... and rather the guild perk applies the bonus mats to DEing like greenies now to the shatter? is it a crafting recipie? I think so, but it could be a DE...
Where am I now.. well, working on rebuilding the ZA database for all current Cata enchants... I dumped my entire addon folder and the reloaded the game from scratch.. so the old stuff is gone.. now I am identifying sales rates for enchants.. which ones to stockpile and which ones to NOT pile.. some will never have value and I am marking some on my spreadsheet as DNC (Do Not Craft).. They are the ones used heavily by leveling enchanters and they are not popular enchants for any class spec really...
I am also continuing to stock up leg armors, mats for the leg armors, chants and mats for chants.. A rough goal will be to have 1-2000 GCEs, 2-4000 HDs, and 500 plus HSs and MCs too... all that while having also 20-60 precrafted scrolled based on sales history and what will move w/ volume. As I set out to get to this goal, I found money going out fast and no income. As I reached a first goal of one guild bank tab full of GCEs... I started crafting enchanting scrolls to stacks of 20 and started listing to get some sales history. It also told me I am going to have to be more aggressive in purchasing some mats to run the business and stock up. Leather gets bought up and crafted to leg armors and turned into prisitne hides... I was trying to sell pristine hides in singels and stacks of 8 (8 is needed for the FL paterns) and that would usually get me 100-200 gold per hide profit.. though, one pristine hide and dragon scales/volitiles in leg armors will get me 2-500 profit per hide used??? since I can not get enough leather to do both, I am going with the leg armors for now only. I am presently maintaining stacks of 20 each epic leg armor, and 40 or more of the rare quality ones... Mostly looking to get sales numbers and know what is safe to stock up for 4.3.. 20 dragon scal leg armors? or 5 stacks of 20? what can I expect to sell...
Still buying on both sides and moving stuff over the nuetral AH... chant mats, and leather mostly...
I think I have over 100 tremendous tankard of terror now... all bought under 500 gold each.. 3 days to see if that 30K can be turned into 100K? 200K? 300K? once the source is gone prices should go up... how much is yet to be learned... Last look i had purchased 77 @388G avg... that was last look... now prolly near or over 100, and if I was able to sell at 1,000G ea... that would be an easy 60K... but, unless there are a lot of other people doing this on the server, I think I may be able to sell them at 3-5K each.. still cheaper than the crafted strength mace, easier to get, and better for MH and OH for an enhancement shamman execpt FL drops, Heric Nefarian, and there is a better OH that is a 346 blue from one of the heroics since it is 2.8 speed... and all others are 2.6. that heroic 346 weapon for enh shamman is the librarians paper cutter from wrath for rogues... that said, the purple 365 is good, more available, PURPLE, higher Ilvl and all that... so.. I expect a lasting market... DW DKs will use them for the base DPS, rogues and shamman, SMF Warriors will use them, and I could even see some sword and board tanks using them... In 3 days... I will likely have over 50K invested in them, and will get to watch markets and see if its payday... brewfest will be over.. and so will the oportunity to get them from anywhere but the AH... or a friend... or have planned ahead... Lots of people do plan ahead.. their gearing plan for the soon to be 85... but lots of people DONT... had one guy, an enhancement shamman that /w at me to say "thanks for buying my tankard, now I can get MCs for landslide for the ZG claws..." WUT??? lol... he is putting exceptional enchants on inferior weapons... and to some degree very much inferior weapons... so, people like that guy give me their gold over and over and over.. enchants and gear and more and more... his reason??? "because i have to like the way it looks...." my guess he will like the way his dps on the meters looks later as he changes his weapons out more than the matched pair of fist weapons, and will come up with a good reason that wielding a pair of tankards looks cool....
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