Thinking more on probably sales, numbers and time frames surrounding 4.3... the release will probably mark the end of the current PVP season. And a one week calculation time prior to the upcoming season and the entry of the new boss in BH. So, initially there will be a surge of new gear from the 5 mans, as well as from the LFR tool and the new raid zones... Initially this is going to cause a huge shuffle in gear as UGs are obtained, and the BiS from other sources. This will be concurrent with the current PVP conquest gear availability from honor vs Conquest and then later the new Conquest gear, in the following weeks... as well as Valor gear.
Here is the mass of predicted sales and thoughts behind my stockpiling goals.
Week One: New 5 mans, lots of gear for some casuals and alts. Since it will be 378 gear, it will firmly kill the FL raid zone except for achievement getters or an odd piece of gear to fill boredom time. The LFR tool will be running and drops will be coming out of there, as well as the new raid zones.
Week Two: Some valor gear will start to get purchased and need enchants as well as another round of week one. This will also mark the begining of conquest points and gear accumulation, as well as the BH boss drops (or the following week)
Week Three: declines will be noticed as the farming of the new 5 mans shifts.. the good raiders will have all their gear, and since they can do normal heroics for the same amount of VP I expect that route to be taken.. This will show w/ a significant drop in price of HSs as they become more available, and MCs become less available.. This will also be another good week for the PVP CP gear most likely and the BH boss drops
Week Four: This should show some beginings to stabilization and decline in markets. As well as some boredom in players raid tendancies... Less time invested in new 5 mans.. boredom (frustration) w/ content or difficulty of raid time to farm for mats, do dailies or get gold to craft BOEs, buy BOEs and make content more available.. Mats will begin to come back into the market from non "farmer" accounts and be more readily available at more consistent prices.
This is my estimation of many events that will occur, many of the guesses could be a week or 2 off, easily, and YMMV depending on markets, competition, server economy and tendancy to raid/PVP. In my estimation this is the golden month.. where whoever has the bigger stockpile of mats wins... If you have 2,000 GCEs you bought at an average of 53gold (like I presently have) and the market price of GCEs spikes to 75G (or more) I can continue to sell at current thresholds and still make monster profits, and do not have to spend time looking for resupply... With, stack of precrafted scrolls, when the market is hot and moving, I can spend my time relisting sold and undercut auctions from stock, quickly with out having to resupply mats, or craft the replacements.
Still my goals are diverse and should cover a lot of market turf as well as make a ton of gold. I started with roughly a combined 450K ally and horde.. down to aroung 150K, but I have monster growing stocks and consistent market research to plan the attack for 4.3 sales...
OH.. wild thought.. I have stacks of scrolls from leveling and some that I mistakenly thought I would be able to flip.. they sell for about 1-3 gold normally.. The game will change and the leveling of professions will diminish.. people will play thier mains and not level alt professions, or work on leveling toons so much. I wonder if i will be able to get more out of those scrolls afte 4.3 release... worth waiting probably.. not much to come out of them now.. but even if they go from 3 gold to 10 gold (still below mats cost) thats still more gold at the end of the day...
Good luck in preparation for 4.3
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