Friday, October 7, 2011

More Speculation and Stockpiling Plans for the 4.3

SPECULATION:  Now with more info of potential implementations in 4.3... Guessing at what will have value in 4.3.. particularly in my enchanting market... At present, I think I may prepare to shift the market, and raise my threshold on MCs... I strongly suspect that about 2 weeks afte 4.3. or there about, that MCs will see a fairly shard increase in price.  I base a lot of this on my current buying habits on MCs.  they are usually in ones and 2s before raid in larger quantities than after raids.  To me this indicates a huge majority of them are comming out of the troll dungeons.  Why the troll dungeons? because you get 2x the valor for a troll hole as you do for a normal heroic.  However, at present, the plans to implement valor will be to get 150 from ANY HEROIC... so, what do you do.. you got all the gear from the new troll dungeons in the first weeks... all the good players and raiders now speed run the original 4.0 release heroics for the same amount of valor, and the LFD in the new 5 mans will be rough... It will be somewhat like the speed runs for badges in Slave pens back in BC... This is going to take a lot of MCs supply out of the system, and increase the amount of HSs... combined w/ the HS shatter, HS will drop in value and MC will start to be at a higher premium. 

STOCK UP ON CHEAP MCs NOW!!! IMO.. do what you will, evaluate markets, server economy and such for the best informed decision.

HERBS... for the transmutes, IMO it's safe to gamble a couple K on plenty of herbs in line with the current transmutes for rare gems, in preparation for the epic gem transmutes.  Its likely that the prices of herbs will go up as the farmers and daily questors will head out of the quest and farming zones and head for the 5man, LFR and organized raids.  even if you dont use the herbs for transmutes, you can still unload them raw or use them for another profession....

Supply will go down.. and demand will go up.. how much and what markets is where the gamble is. 

However the gamble is very small on cardinal mats (leather, ore, bars, cloth the stuff you have to have and use to craft ANYTHING w/ a given profession).  If it has value now... it will continue to have value all the way through 5.0 at least... so even if you dont make a killing, which is likely, you can get all your money back, or... all plus a small profit, or a marginal loss would be odd, but could happen and even so, its only a marginal loss.  If you successfully unload your stocks prior to 5.0, you will be fine, and many things will retain value and then go up in the months following 5.0 if you did not get to unload them.  If you fail to unload just hold em for a couple months.  People will still need to level professions, there are new level and ilvl restrictions on the gear enhancements, that leveling players and twinks will want to get... so what has value, will continue to have value.

So stock up on herbs, and stock up on gems... Good plans IMO if you have an alchy, especially a xmute alchy...

Also stock up on volatiles.. Though, it is not clear yet, you can bet that new PVP paterns will be out.  These are most likely going to be the same everything as the current and just change over to a new higher ilvl for the "starter" PVP gear.  FIRE and WATER are the big 2 for crafting the PVP gear.  I guess my plan is to shoot to have 2-5,000 of each volatile and maybe more of some...  

Though, I have a problem of liquid gold to reach out for these goals.  At present, what I have stocked up is around 1K GCEs, nearly 40 of each LW leg armor, 5K HDs, and I usually have aroun 1-200 MCs and HSs...  As, I continue to rotate stock, I increase my liquid and stocks.  and for now reaching my goals is hard while rotating stocks for profit in the AH now.  I am burning a lot of HSs and MC on great volume of sales of enchants... Yesterday, gross sales was 15K in the a.m. before work, a bit more after work, and 34K after raid, with another 9K this a.m.  So, I am firmly back in the game of selling and making lots of gold.  I seem to stock up enchanting velums about 200 at a time every couple days.  This a.m. I did some market looking and some more to do on the UMJ for items, but I raised my snatch threshold on a couple items that I am not seeing any snatches come up on.  So the piling continues, the plans evolve and the goals are multiple and diverse.

Current evaluation of sales is going to be helpfull since the amount of materials I plan to have stocked is large, precrafting lots of items like 3 stacks of 20 scrolls of peerles stats and mighty stats as they are good sellers, will cut down on the amount of raw mats and space to store things, and still be positioned for the massive gold mine that 4.3 will be.

Stocking up on
Pristine hides
blackened dragonscales
all cata chant mats
all volatiles
herbs (for flip or xmute)
LW leg armors

UPDATE on the tankards of terror...  have not sold one yet, but I am playing with one at a time in the market.  Prices have seen a solid 100% increase, but the UMJ will be needed to get an idea of rather or not sales are happening..  Prices definately spiked, and there is a lot of potential, but the question that remains is there enough demand.  Time will tell.. and I look forward to the outcome.  At present if any modest demand presents itself, i stand to make around 50-100K, and that could become 3-400K... if demand presents itself...  still lots of alts being leveled as FL has been out a while, more time for players to spend on alts, alts have to be geared, cheap options for returning players, and new players for good weapons... I am pretty sure it will be there, however, the question remains, how many others are doing what I am, and how big is their stock of tankards.  I have been watching the market w/ curriosity, and noticed an increase of auctions listed and after an intial price spike a decrease as the undercutting goes on..... With The High AH deposit, I am going to be carful with how I approach this, but I also have to be agrressive since I have SOOOOOOOO many of them to unload.  140? I think?  Its going to be fun... worst case is the ~50-55K invested becomes 14K in maelstrom crystals (current market value 100G ea).. more if I wait till 4.3 and the likely spike in MC values.  IMO its a fun gamble to play with.  Basically sell 50 at current market (800ish gold) and shard the rest it would be a near break even... but all this is the assumtion that market values for a no longer obtainable good item will stay that low.. and that in 4.3 the MC values will stay the same and not rise.. Neither of which I think is likely... the potential to lose is IMO minimal, and the potential to profit is great, and  LARGE PROFITS are likely...  4.3 hits and it will still be a good item.. if its cheap it will be a huge jump in the avg ilvl for a newly minted lvl 85.  Heck, I would buy one if it was an equipable item and store it in my bank just to get my avg ilvl up so I could go to heroics...  But hunter will use em, rogues will use em main hand for sure, Off hand if they are baddies, enhancement shamman will use em both hands, frost DKs will use em for the weapon base DPS, furry warriors (SMF) will use em for the base DPS, and average Ilvl, I could even see a few sword and board pallys and warriors using them...

see you next time

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