Friday, September 23, 2011

Planning ahead to make a big payday, because time is money friend

I have decided the amount of gold I could possibly net w/ 4.3 release is just too large to pass up.  I have now raided Firelands w/ the nerfs... MECHANICS STILL MATTER... but the encounters are much easier.

With the new increased viability for a lot of gear for pugs out of FL.. if you are in current markets,  I hope you are ready for a surge of business... and are stockpiled with mats for the current.  This change in player habits will make it difficult to nail down some good values of material to pick them up, but a lot more players are going to be pugging into FL...  a lot more gear to UG... woot... lot more sales potential... RIGHT NOW and in the comming weeks... the nerfs made the encounters DOABLE, but not pushover, because the mechanics have to be learned by the noobs... but my guess for the next 6 weeks will show a marked increase in sales for FL gear drops people will be getting.  that note is based on  my estimation that ZA/ZG was viable, roughly six weeks for the majority to get the encounters down... learn em, farm em get the gear.. then the surge faded??? This could drive up MC prices.. as more Valor is going to be coming to players from FL bosses, and the gear will get more used and less DE'd... all kinds of musing... gamble on the markets where you feel comfortable... play the game, its a game, have fun...
I have also begun to stockpile for 4.3.  I have 180K on the ally side to spend on mats and move over in preparation.  I am working on watching markets on items that I know will sustain value, and I can craft and use in the early days of 4.3.

Pyrite Ore.... can always use this stuff.. I hope there will be some price drops and massive amounts are unloaded.  I intend mainly to prospect it, though if I manage to level up the BS belt buckles will be a good sell.
Savage leather or heavy for armor patches (dragon scales and pristine hides)
and chanting mats, I expect on realeas huge price surges will impact several markets as new gear comes out, the current valor gear is JP gear and then a new PVP season and gear that comes with this.. Gems, Enchants, armor patches... since what will be on vendors and what will be craftable is not known, it intend to preposisiton for several area, and capitalize on things as they come out.

Since I have 2 6 tab guild banks to store things in, cleaning out and focusing the use of those storage spaces will be a project to continue to work on... stacks of precrafted enchants, stacks of gems, stacks or leather armor patches, and if I get the tailor up that too...

Still more to come on what will be included with the big one, but some things are almost a sure thing and there is almost no way to go wrong.  Enchanting mats for sure... so the JC shuffle is in order... but watching prices now and buying low now could make me money now, but when the market dries up on 4.3 release and the following days and weeks, prices will again skyrocket... I think the biggest profit potential is in heavenly shards...  Everyon will quit running heroics and be getting into raiding.. those who have been farming (not the farmer accounts) but raiders who are bored w/ current content and play at farming now will stop and go back to raiding...  ATM, heavenly shards are nearly as valuable or more valuable than maelstrom crystals...  and likely to become more so in 4.3 since so many enchants require them.  Keep in mind to be prepared for the wrath enchants too.. the main ones I know of are the agility enchants for gloves and cloaks that a lot of dps agility classes use and like over the cata equivalents.. 22 agility is by varying margins better than the 65 crit and mastery, or its not better, by narrow margins, but its agility...

I figure 3 months to stack up 1000 stacks of stuff will be a great profit potential... Recently I have hovered just under 500K... and expect to spend my way down to 100K or so... but after 4.3 and a couple weeks of posting... I could easily see myself hitting 750K in liquid in that month that follows...

-Players habits will change with the patch.  meaning, less casual player farming, focus on raiding/PVP and the new gear
-Supply will go down
-Demand will go up
-Prices will reflect a marked increase.
-Demand will be centric to the high volume low cost enhancements for new gear gems, leg armors, enchants
-Just reselling mats could present huge profitability especially heavenly shards, secondly greater essences (heavenly shards are about 80 at present on my server, I would not be surprised to see them spike to 200 some times)
-Plan to have one full Guild bank tab of heavenly shards and 2 tabs of GCEs  some will come from the AH others will come from the JC pyrite/elementium shuffle....
-The cool part is historically this is a know fact and months of planning will almost certainly pay huge
-More things to pile up will become evident as more info about the patch becomes available is: what is valor gear going to be? what will be rep obtainable? what will be craftable?  Mats for crafted gear... stockpile... if its rep obtainable, stock up to UG those items.. example, in 4.2 it was the capes and belts from the rep vendor... More knowledge of the boss loot tables will also tell... when to list.. how deep is the boss in the encounter... etc etc.. lots to consider.. but knowing what pieces are going to first and early be dropping and having piles of stuff ready to go will be pretty big.  Another question, since only bosses will drop Tier gear... is will the new Barradin Hold boss drop Tier? What new craftable PVP gear? who to get paterns, stock up on things to craft the new PVP gear...

Lots of gambles to make here, however, unless you stock pile to a silly level, even if it does not provide huge imediat profits the items I am going to stockpile will retain value well into the 4.3 patch.  The gamble is less on profit, and more on HOW MUCH profit... and when.  IMO, Pyrite will retain value an in MONTHS time will start to go up as a new expansion comes out and there is low farming in the "old" zones.  Look at the new min max level, and ilvl on gems.  expect that trend to continue and it places a lot of value on current gems for leveling toons through the Cata content.. this is however offset by the very low existence of gem sockets on leveling gear compared to BC.. they realized they made a mistake with leveling and dungeon gear having gem sockets in BC.. great idea, but it made some hard to get rare drop lol ilvl gear BiS for a long time into raiding, due to the sockets it had, and higher ilvl raiding gear was considerably inferior.  So though there will be limitation in the way distant months to come for cata level gems when cata is old, it will still have value to leveling toons and new professions as the new FOTMs change the habits of players over and over and over... leather, ore, gems... volatiles.. they will all retain value. though how much is a guessing game and could even be a long game of exceptional patience... like over a year???

Its a game and gambling w/ markets is fun for me... and being lazy and getting bored with a venture is probably going to happen again, leaving me with piles of mats... then the new dailys and then cash and the leveling in the next expansion will bring a new round of inflation to the game too, soo... gamble...  if you can use a lot of it to level a profession, it will retain value.. if it takes a lot of time to gather, it will retain value.. because, "Time is money friend"

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