Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Looking at old data for new strategies....

Its easy to say thing about what coulda would been to boost your own ego about things, saying things like, "Oh, I knew that, I just did not want to do it." or "I could have, I just thought it was too much risk"  or make up any excuse to boost your ego, does not change the fact that I did not look deep enough at the right time to make the better call...

I continue to hesitate at trying to offload all the thousands of volatiles I have since the would be a massive loss.  I continue to empty out banks and clean up space slowly to make it usable for future ventures...

I completely failed to look and recognize that w/ 4.3 there is really... very very little use of volatiles... not in any massive volume that I prepared for.  I would have to quit doing my normal gut feeling, but ATM, that is still what I am going with... volatiles were flying around at rediculous volumes earlier in the expansion.. Now, not so much... in that prices i was paying pre 4.3 wer 500-700% more than what they are now... like I was paying 12-15 gold each for them and they are now at 2-3 gold each... I guess now would be the time when the demand exists to unload them even at a loss, however, I am considering holding them for 5.0.. there are going to be a LOT of new leveling professional Pandarens... I am equating, the demand on mats early in the expansion to the massive curve of leveling professions that was still going on in 4.3.  Then 4.3 hit and that has all changed.  People are just biding their time for the next big thing... which is 5.0,  a lot more time doing other things besides leveling alts and professions, rather those things are in game or not, the demand on the market is gone... with 5.0 a new demand will arrise, and a lack of supply will exist... I think and hope... a wowhead search of "crafted with" will give me a better idea,  If there are a ton of low level/leveling craftables that people are going to need and want to make to level professions from 425-500 or even beyond... then I should hold them and unload in the weeks that follow 5.0 release...  ATM the only markets really out there I feel (more unsubstantiated gut feel) are enchanting, JC, and leg armor/threads...   all the gear is coming from the new 5 mans, LFR and DS...  very little in perspective from crafting... and that is a pretty low volume all considered... I guess I COULD have seen it, but I did not look... I thought that the enchants and leg armors and PVP gear would place a lot higher demand on the market for them than the farming element would provide...  The truth is, I never looked at what the big users are... Now I am in a situation to make an unload strategy...  In 5.0, will demand outrun supply on volatiles?  basically am I better to unload now and massive loss, or better to wait and minimize that loss/ actually make a profit?

Another question of what do... what will supply and demand with farmers for MFCs do... they will continue to require Cata level mats unless they update the receipe... or create a new one.  I am trying to decide if I want to stockpile stacks and stacks of MFCs at the current lower prices, in hopes that they will increase in value as the mats become more expensive in 5.0?  more research to do...

Another thing is how will the new pet system work... stocking up on more available low cost pets like the elementium geode now... and reselling later at a higher price when the supply goes to the tank? hrmmmm

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