Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Response to Maddy on stocking up for 5.0

Maddy left a question on my last post, the answer started to turn into a post so here it is.

Since I am still in the "PLAY" mode a bit more than the "PLAN" mode I have been pretty slow to make a finished product with the spreadsheet.  But here are the basics and based on MY SERVER info, some recommendations, though I expect many of them to be universal across all realms.

Some of the valuations are GOING TO BE gambles... though historically some things show a lot more promise.  There is more data for a more complete list or finish my spreadsheet, but for an answer now, there are basically 2 MAIN factors that are going into what I am sharing for some specifics. 
Factor #1: valuation of items based on quantity needed to level from wow-professions, recent historical prices from UMJ or AH-spy, amount on the AH at any time compared to amount needed to power level and gold value per bag slot or stack. 
Factor #2: personal experience in some markets...
For any of the items listed, first look up the items for your realm on UMJ or AH-spy. I just started w/ AH spy and like it better, it has a longer historical window for averaging.  Next pick a price threshold relative to average prices you will buy or buy mats to craft at.  I will vary this based on a few things, like how many expected, potential for market to be flooded by others, ease of farming it myself, and the time it would take to do so (more the times, since almost all farming I will suggest is easy, but mindless and boring)

Here are my picks and some notes...
Frostweave and Embersilk - They are both the ONLY cloth from the expansion and will take monster piles to level tailoring and first aid on new toons... like over 1500 frostweave to level first aid and tailoring on one toon.  Consider crafting a bunch of it into bolts to save space.   The idea here with bolts is to give up some flexibility in your market potential, but have much more potential gold value per stack AND cater to the lazy peeps that see it is the same cost or only slightly more expensive to buy bolts than cloth and have to craft all the bolts themselves.. guhhh time is money friend

Heavy Hides, Thick/rugged/knothide/heavy borean leathers, Fel Scales - People finally level skinning to  a point where they can get to the next level, and gather very few thick and rugged leathers, ding 58, going to outlands...  Heavy hides are just sort of rare, and in high demand to level LW (personal experience here, 600% flips) though to save some space, craft the hides to Cured Heavy Hides (they stack to 20 cured and only 10 otherwise)  the rest are similar to explanations in tailoring...  Over all I expect LW to be VERY popular due to the Monk class being a leather class.

Bronze BAR, Mithril BAR, Thorium BAR, Fel Iron BAR, Adamantite BAR and ore, Cobalt Bar, Saronite BAR, Obsidium BAR - Not including elementium bars since the volume needed is yet unknown, the numbers I have are to get to 525, but if patterns are followed, you will only have to level your profession to 500 to get to the MOP recipes.  BARs...  its about lazy and crafting times, and often, it stacks for more money per stack (i.e. 2 ore to make one bar, etc)  Time is money here.  Adamantite Ore is likely to be very valuable, its rare and lots is required to get the murcurial adamantite needed to level a JC, keep the ore or prospect it to components if you think you can save space and maintain value.

Briarthorn, Stranglekelp, Liferoot, Wild Steelbloom, Goldthorn, Gromsblood, goldclover, icethorn, lichbloom, heartblossom - There may be some more winners, but the idea here is to cater to the leveling alchys, not the scribes, the barriers to entry for a scribe a annoying making it a non popular profession though, for a new toon Scribes may be popular, just to avoid having to get the shoulder chants...   As well as any scribe will just buy the cheapest herbs they can get for the pigments/inks they need and Alchys need specific herbs.... there was a comment on changing up scribe leveling too, so more to come on that.  The items listed are low in supply, high in value and needed in reasonable quantities to level alchy.  stack sizes to support wow-professions quantities less than full stack... good idea, cater to the lazy guys some more and take more of their money.

Shadowgem, Moss Agate, Citrine, Star Ruby, Large Opal, Azerothian Diamond, Huge Emerald and ... (working more on spreadsheet here)  -  the recommendations here are driven by volume for leveling JC mainly..

Chant mats:
Vision Dust, Dream Dust, Illusion Dust, Greater Eternal, Large Brilliants, Arcane Dust, Infinte Dust, Greater Celestials,

Chanting rods, elementals, volatiles, eternals, primals and other stuff... Still working this part of the list but here are some unsupported guesses.  At least they are not supported by data on the spreadsheet.

Iridescent Pearls, Black Pearls, Arcane Crystals/Arcanite bars (xmute), eternal waters, volatile/fire/water earth... - Pearls, rare and always in low supply for chanting rods, use em to make your own chanting rods, or just sell em for others...  the others are volume for profession leveling driven...

Meat to level for cooking.. totally have not even started looking at this area...

Okay.. that’s annoying, the above long list and lots of items and thoughts... GRATS if you made it to the end, here is my top 25 items as of now:

 #1 Cured Heavy Hide
#2 Black Pearls
#3 Iridescent Pearls
#4 Fel Scales
#5 Heavy Borean Leather
#6 Netherbloom
#7 Adamantite Bar
#8 Moss Agate
#9 Infinite Dust
#10 Goldthorn
#11 Shadowgem
#12 Huge Emerald
#13 Embersilk cloth or bolts
#14 Obsidium Bar
#15 Rugged Leather
#16 Large Opal
#17 Titanium Bar
#18 Black Diamonds
#19 Cobalt Bar
#20 Frostweave cloth or bolts
#21 Fel Iron Bar
#22 Citrine
#23 Gromsblood
#24 Arcane Crystal/Arcanite
#25 Knothide Leather

Okay, don’t go nuts on this list, its just a list of the spreadsheet resorted to the valuation of material based on above listed criteria... and a few personal considerations... I have not completed the list and I have not gone to great extents to set priorities on my plans... though the list already does reflect much of them...

Later I will re-evaluate and add in more data to the spreadsheet, and then compete a manual review of the list with heavy weights given to LW mats, Chanting Mats, JC mats, and alchemy mats... in that order I think..

- LW - because I will gamble on a lot of monks leveling LW
- Chanting - Don’t you hate to buy expensive chants on the AH? And have dreams of leveling your own Chanter? How reasonable is it to think people will role a new monk and choose LW/enchanter?
- JC - Same as chanting...
-Alchy - flasks and elixirs are going to be expensive as heck out the gate making this a very attractive option...

Chanting, JC, and Alchy are the big consumables that will persist throughout the expansion, they are good moneymakers and will be throughout the expansion... I may rethink LW being first, but for now that is my stance...

More to come I hope on this and I hope it serves you well...


  1. Wow, awesome. Thank you very much for being so comprehensive about your thoughts and plans on the matter! :D

    Anyway yeah, I think especially choke-point mats and "rare" mats like hides are going to sell big time, the first because people with Pandarens will be anxious to get to level 85+ content; the second because they're not very easily farmable and require a bit of patience to gather in sufficient numbers.

    Also, despite the possibility of AoE looting eventually lowering the prices for cloth, I doubt very many people will go farm it immediately instead of going to see all the new content...

    Most returning players will be back at launch or even a bit earlier (for the world events like the Zombies or Elementals invasions previously), making that a very good time to sell Embersilk bags.
    Frostweave bags will also still sell pretty good imho, especially to new players who don't happen to have a lot of money right from the start.

    1. You bet, there are some things you can add to the list or take off for various reasons... Example... there are some nasty choke points on cooking, and I have not researched that...

      Wrath materials and the uper end BC materials... wrath and BC leveling is so fast... not a lot of gathering going on by leveling masses... the upper BC mats since players will leave BC zones at 68...

      I was shocked at the wrath nerf... its about 10-14 hours of quest/dungeon grinding to level through it... its just that fast...

      Another one... level 77-79 or 80 cata greens... particularly the stuff for monks... and most likely agility, since there caster gear is healing, and not as many leveling toos will go for it... the problem is, it can take a lot of storage space... also, for more on good sorces of info, check out FOO over at foo's wow musings and WoWMidas... and the inflation numbers for stuff... if you have not already seen this, its just one more thought to factor in to your personal "gut" feeling on what is likely to be the most profitable...

      it also helps if you have leveled more than one toon somewhat recently... you can get a lot of ideas and knowledge on catch points for professions and stuff...

      Playing in the new zones will in some ways slow down farming niche markets for many as they play new content, but the demand and heirloom chants could still be a great market Essence of Air for example for agility to heirlooms... :-) or subtlety to cloak??? and stats or health on chest? Just more ideas... and such...

      If you are asking the questions, I am guessing you may be newer to the game... DONT TRY TO DO IT ALL... but dont fail to do anything either... Unless you are really planning on managing your flip market in early MoP rather than play your own new toons... :-)