Jafo over at Auction house grind posted on 4.3 stocks and plans and oops... To him and all players in the game its another great post on 4.3 preparation plans, YMMV based on server and markets and stuff... its always a gamble and its always fun...
First off, I disagree on 2 points. FL will be "easy mode" and the legendary will still be sought, so regular groups will run I think. It will be quick easy valor for casuals, 7 bosses in around 2 hours... and often prefered to LFD and LFR runs fo many mains and alts. Look at how many still run BWD and BOT and TO4W... there are not as many T11 raids as T12 raids, but there are pretty regular /2 trade spams to get the T11 raids going, look at what to BOEs are selling for to get a pulse on your server and watch trade for current trends and such about the raiders and RBGs and BOEs. The volume of BOEs and prices is IMO a good temperature gague on what you may expect..
Second on his post he suggests don't stockpile on precrafted enchant scrolls, pile on mats and stay flexible... Ehhh, great advice depending on your position and your market analysis and research... YMMV... and I opt for another option... BOTH, stock mats and scrolls. I have been for months, and continue building stocks and doing market anaylysis of sales volume and potential for posting paterns and precrafting volume. Auctioneer I think is the addon that tells me 3day/7day/total sales on items.. so a mouse over the scroll and I know what volume I ran for the last 3 and 7 days. I started all scrolls in stacks of 2... if I sold out I moved it to 3>4>5>6 or 7 if I sold out, 7 is my current max per post, this is in part driven by undercutters and market volume and potential. 2 things here, one, moving up per post volume is to cover market "POTENTIAL" and the sales numbers show market "ACTIVITY" some are steady and some are spikey. You will be undercut and it seems a good place to start.. some things I sell little, but very spikey volume. Ex. sell 4 one day and none for another week. Others, I sell steady at ~50/week Over a couple months, I have a good set of data to base having 40+ precrafted scrolls of some types (or 80 each) AND... I did the same thing as Jafo... I guessed.. and continue to guess, so I will realize many mistakes as I go forward. Goal is 2-3K GCEs and I am close, and 4-5K HDs, dont care about HSs so much... (markets are hard to guess in the early weeks on what HSs will do.) MCs, I am close to 1,000... so, I have goals, guesses and market trends from personal observation to base things on, and I suspect some areas, as usual I will be wrong... but I will be smarter...
Another reason to precraft... I raid.. and dont want to invest the time crafting when i want to be raiding and valor capping my valor slaves for my mains BOE valor gear... So... I will have regretable mistakes, My volume estimates are based on current situations of players, buyers and competition. The patch will hit, players will return volume estimates based on the preceding weeks/months will be wrong.. ehh, its something to start with and it will be easily adjusted up.
On 4.3 stockpiles and competiton, I talked to a guy in a pug raid say he had 6 guild bank tabs of pyrite... it got me thinking... patch day is a money maker.. trends are trends.. but at some point people start to jump on the band wagon and it waters down the value as more try to capitalize on it... are patches far enough apart to reset the trends of trying to make the gold, are players busy enough w/ new content to change the markets, and will this be the patch where...
"There were just too many stockpiles that were just too big, on too many goblins for the high profits previously realized on patch cycles."
I worry about that.. okay, its a game and pixels, so not really, but its a point of thought and curiosity.
One thing I do get and people I do talk to is the suppliers... I buy monster volumes of "stuff" and frequently will get a seller to /w "you want more?" My reaction is always the same, "? more what?" since I am buying chant mats, leather, ore and other stuff.. no idea who that random guy is, but the oportunity may be there to find out what that "supplier" is planning for 4.3? continue farming? go raiding? one player over and over will start to also give you a good picture of what you may see in your server.
Honestly, I dont think people will be ready, and the markets will crash and climb. Mats prices will go up, and so will finished goods... if you have piles of cheap mats, you will have a chance to capitalize massivly...
People/players are inherintly lazy and continually looking for the quick gold play. the lottery if you will. The get bored and play other games, they do not plan ahead and instead scream and whine about the new "high" prices and then pay since that is the only option we give them.. they may go farm for mats, but, back to the first point, inherintly lazy, and the time to farm will be often skipped to get the quick UG enhanced... Really, who wants to show off their new 391 tier 13 gear or the next PVP season gear, with no gems or enhancements... they will get laughed at and you know they want to show it off... If they got it week one or 2 and such.. they won the lottery, they will want to tell everyone that they are better than you since they "earned" and got that gear and you did not.. lol at the luck #s from a Baradin Hold Drop... but they, in their mind, for a time get to be better than you... And a few of them, quite possibly are better than you...
BUT I WILL HAVE MORE GOLD!!!
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